The president reaped the best result of a Republican candidate among black voters since 1996. Who else will vote for him. And where he lost.
Warning: maybe a reader his head exploded. Donald Trump, the president who consistently denied police violence against blacks, the president who asked a supremacist group to “be vigilant,” is the top Republican candidate among black voters in a US presidential election since 1996.
And, before that, we must go back to 1976. He was voted by 12%, one in eight. He improved his 2016 result by four points, and just after a summer convulsed by the protests of Black Lives Matter.
This is one of the headlines that the analysis of the exit polls reveals: they draw an X-ray of the voters of President Donald Trump and those of Democrat Joe Biden, and how they have changed compared to the 2016 elections.
They explain why Trump probably lost reelection, but also why the race turned out to be much closer than the polls said. Once again, they underestimated support for the president.
In 2016, the black vote, especially its low turnout, had already been one of the keys to the failure of Hillary Clinton, who failed to get them to the polls as Barack Obama had done. Hence, Trump’s record Light a red flag on the Democratic Party.
It is not the only problem for Biden’s party. Even more than blacks, the great story of this election is how well Trump did with Hispanics.
“As well as George W. Bush in 2000, who presented himself with a very different platform. Better than John McCainBetter than Mitt Romney, ”says Sean Trende, senior electoral analyst at Real Clear Politics (RCP).
This allowed him to resist in Florida or Texas, where Trump even won in border counties, “something never seen for a Republican,” adds Trende. Hispanics are still predominantly Democrats, but less and less.
It had already been detected in 2016, but Biden fared worse than Clinton. Or Trump improved his numbers, depending on how you look at it. If then 29% of Latinos voted, on Tuesday 32% did.
In Florida this displacement was more pronounced. Clinton’s 27-point lead among Hispanics has shrunk to 8 for Biden. In Georgia, it went from 40 to 25 points, and from 41 to 24 in Ohio.
One of the hopes of Biden’s campaign was that older voters would abandon Trump for his handling of the pandemic. He succeeded, but not quite. The president’s advantage among those 65 and older narrowed, but is still three points higher. Where he does lose is in the 45-64 band.
Biden, meanwhile, scored a victory among the youngsters.
There was no greater mobilization (they represent more or less the same proportion of the electorate as four years ago), but they voted much more than Clinton. If the former secretary of state was voted by 55% of voters aged 18 to 29, Biden rose to 62%.
Much was written during this campaign about women, who were said to bury Trump. In the end the surprise was given by the men.
The president actually improved his score by one point among them, while he fell four points among men, a band that he won comfortably with Clinton, and among whom this time almost tied with Biden.
The emergence of a gap between white voters based on education level was the great phenomenon of Trump’s 2016 election, and it was responsible for the polls getting so wrong.