Within the diverse electorate that will attend the next November elections in the United States, there is an essential group for the aspirations of the Democratic candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden, such as the white working class women, whose affinity four years ago for Donald Trump to the detriment of his then rival, Hillary Clinton, was key to the tycoon’s victory.
Trump defeated Clinton by nothing less than 27 percentage points in 2016 in this population group, distributed among key states that finally ended up deciding the elections in favor of the current president. Four years later, its importance has not changed. States in the balance like Michigan (which Trump won by only 10,000 votes), Wisconsin or Pennsylvania depend on the support of this demographic.
In 2020, white women with no higher education they continue to back Trump, but the margin is much smaller. In some states the gap in support for Biden has been reduced to the single digits, while in others the Democratic nominee leads his opponent.
In Pennsylvania, the Trump advantage has been cut in half (from 20 points in 2016 to 10 in 2020), according to an NBC News / Marist poll. In Wisconsin and Minnesota, Trump is 9 and 19 points behind. In Michigan, Biden is 9 points ahead of him, according to the same polls.
“A revolution is impossible of working class like the one that happened in 2016 unless women are part of it, “says Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg, aware of the impact of the crisis in places like Van Buren County, Michigan where support for Trump has dropped significantly after four years of support for the president, although it is still considered a bastion of the president.
“It is being very hard”explains one of the residents, Krystal Petty. “Many bills, many lines to buy,” he says. Yet like many women in the county, she believes the president is blameless. “It is tremendous. He only wants to lower the price of medicines for diabetics, like my parents. I hope that after getting infected everyone sees him as a human being,” he said.
Republican strategist Alex Conant, by contrast, believes Trump “exceeded all expectations” with this demographic in 2016 and “in this cycle we are not seeing a repeat of events.”
In his view, two factors play against the president: his inflammatory behavior since he took office and, above all, that most of these voters do not hate Biden as they despised Clinton. “Democrats are benefiting from having a nominee who does not fall so badly with working-class voters. And for four years now, Trump’s messages on Twitter have been successful. alienate a desperately high number of female voters, who highly value character before casting their vote, “he explains.
Women like Jackie (no last name), 67-year-old retiree, refers precisely to this circumstance. “I really like how the economy was doing before this whole pandemic happened, but I don’t like how Trump talksHow he denigrates everyone, “explains the Portage resident, on Lake Michigan, who is indecisive when casting her vote.” I go from one place to another, all the time, “she adds.
It should also be borne in mind that American women have seen affected by the impact of the pandemic. Many of them have had to stay home looking after the children while working from home. Given their situation, they have fewer resources than women with higher education to deal with these problems.
“They are the ones who receive the bills, those who determine the health plan for the family, know what it costs to take care of the home. The chaos that is Donald Trump is sitting right now at his kitchen table, “explains Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.
This is the same message that Republican strategist Sarah Longwell, now a Biden supporter, has heard throughout months of polls in key states. Many of those consulted highly valued Trump’s work with the economy. “The problem is that the coronavirus has arrived and the traditionally republican states have been unable to control it. People are increasingly frustrated, and want to change, “he says.