The U.S. presidential election is nearing completion and advance voting has already begun in many states. According to recent opinion polls, only a few voters are hesitant to take a stand when election day is 20 days away.
The situation does not seem to be sitting on the president Donald Trumpin good. Competitive partner Joe Biden leads in nationwide support measures by about ten percentage points. However, it is irrelevant to the outcome, as the election is decided by a vote of the electorate. The winner of each state will receive a certain number of voters needed to win 270.
From the table below, you can see what polls, according to polling averages RealClearPolitics, predict for the upcoming election by state and what the election result was in 2016 and 2012. A negative figure indicates a Democratic and a positive Republican leadership.
The Change column shows how Trump’s situation in the state has changed compared to 2016. A negative number indicates a decrease in support.
|State||Trump’s difference in support for Biden (% points)||Result 2016 (Trump’s vote difference to Clinton,% points)||Result 2012 (Romney’s vote difference to Obama,% points)||Change in Trump’s support 2020 vs. 2016 (percentage points)||Voters|
RealClearPolitics calculates that Biden will certainly already have 226 voters behind him, Trump 125. The rest will come from the so-called Libyan states. In all of them, Trump has lost a lot of support compared to the last election.
Trump’s support has collapsed even in Texas, where the Republican has never lost since 1976. That’s unlikely to happen again this year, but the gap may be stiffer than it has been for decades.
Florida plays a vital role for the president. If Trump loses there, he has virtually no hope.
Another clear route to Biden’s victory are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Biden is on the neck by 6-7 percentage points in all of them. This year, Trump must grab at least one of those trio for himself, or the other scales will matter.
All are also states that Hillary Clinton to the great surprise of most, they lost in 2016. If the last election is left out of the counts, Republicans have last won in Pennsylvania as well as Michigan in 1988 and Wisconsin in 1984.
Of the states that lean toward the Republicans, Trump is also in danger in North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia.
Data journalism site FiveThirtyEight, which calculates the forecast according to its own model, currently gives Trump a 13 percent probability of winning. In the last election, the site gave Trump a about 33 percent chance of winning during the election.
As usual, you still have to be reminded that anything can still happen. What was Trump’s probability of winning four years ago at this point, 20 days before the election, according to FiveThirtyEigth? 13 percent.