United States will elect its president on November 3 and like every year, hinge states or ‘swing states’ will be decisive for the final result of the elections, since the color of each state will imply the number of votes that each one of them casts through the Electoral College to one of the two candidates.
The electoral system of the North American country is an indirect election, in which the voters elect the delegates who in turn are in charge of choosing the new president and vice president through the Electoral College, that is, voters do not directly elect the candidate. For this reason, there are situations in the United States such as the one that led Trump to the presidency in the last elections despite having obtained nearly two million fewer votes than his political adversary, Hillary Clinton.
The value of hinge states
In this sense, the color of the states becomes crucial for the choice. Each state gives all of its votes to a single candidate, so getting states like Florida, which has 55 votes, becomes crucial for the parties. The states, therefore, have more or less influence in determining the result of the election based on the number of votes and how clear the political orientation is.
Thus, it is understood that states like Massachusetts and Vermont vote almost immovably for the Democratic candidate, while others, such as Wyoming and Alabama, for the Republican. However, states that they fluctuate between one party and another and the difference between candidates barely exceeds a couple of percentage points, they are the ones that ultimately decide who wins the election. “The hinge states They tend to always be the same because political loyalties in the United States tend to be well defined, “Cesáreo Rodríguez-Aguilera, professor of Political Science at the University of Barcelona, told EL PERIÓDICO.
Based on the electoral record and the latest polls, Trump is clear favorite in 23 states, and instead, Biden is expected to win with some comfort in 20 states and in Washington DC. “The statistics give Biden the victory in most states and favor him a lot in the hinge states, although these data tend to be very volatile until the last moment, proof of this is what happened last year with Clinton,” explains Rodríguez- Aerie.
The other seven states in which the winner is not clearly outlined will contest another 137 votes in the College, which are almost certainly the ones that they are going to define the next president. “Despite the fact that today the polls show a winner, in the case of US policy it is likely that there will be changes without going any further due to issues such as Trump’s covid contagion, the current economic situation and even comments that candidates may make in relation to some states that decide the balance for one or the other, “says Rodríguez-Aguilera.
Florida (55 voters)
With their 55 votersFlorida is considered by Americans as the jewel in the electoral crown. The number of votes that come out of this state tends to tip the balance towards one of the candidates to get the 270 support necessary for victory. Despite the fact that the polls give a victory of 2% of the vote for Biden, the constant color change of the state leaves many unresolved questions. While other states have changed markedly during the last election, the changes in different parts of Florida always seem to balance out, with no candidate outperforming the other by more than a handful of points.
North Carolina (15 voters)
North Carolina is one of the most crucial states in the race for the White House. With their 15 voters, this state, together with the others, gave victory to Barack Obama in 2008 but subsequently it has been a predominantly Republican place. Despite this, the loss of influence of the industry in the territory and the growing military population have given a small turn to the support. For now, the polls predict a Democratic victory by 48% of the vote compared to the 46% that the Republicans are expected to get.
Arizona (11 voters)
The 11 voters of the state of Arizona are still one of the great unknowns in the presidential race. In this state, several marked voting currents converge. On the one hand, voters with college degrees lean toward Democrats while voters without degrees prefer Republicans, and there is an increasingly powerful state in the state. Latino population that begins to claim its political strength. Currently, in Arizona polls give Biden the victory by just 2% more votes with an estimated 48%.
Ohio (18 voters)
According to the latest surveys, in this state of 18 voters Trump would have 48% of the vote compared to the 47% that Biden is expected to get. In the last elections Ohio gave the victory to the Republican candidate, but in the previous two elections the Democratic candidate ended up winning. Also, the achievement of victory in this state usually goes hand in hand with the neighboring states of Michigan y Pennsylvania.
Georgia (16 voters)
In this state, the polls give a clear tie between candidates in terms of voting intention. Apparently both candidates hope to obtain 47% of the votes. Despite the fact that in the last three electoral appointments the state has ended up adding its 16 voters To the Republican count, in the last two meetings the polls predicted a change of powers and a Democratic victory that has not yet arrived.
Iowa (6 voters)
Despite having only 6 voters, the electoral result of the state of Iowa is one of the great unknowns of these elections. Until the last electoral appointment, it had been a territory markedly democraticBut current polls give Trump the victory with 49% of the vote compared to 47% for Biden. Iowa farmers have deeply felt the effects of Trump’s trade policies and the farm assistance payments from your administration, But like most states, the coronavirus has had a huge effect on the local economy, and the spread of the virus in Iowa meatpacking plants has warmed the spirits of many local entrepreneurs.
Michigan (16 voters)
After the surprising color change in the last elections of the state of Michigan, traditionally Democratic but in 2016 its voters joined the Republicans, this year it is once again a key state. The 16 voters The state will be crucial to decide the victory of any of the candidates, but the polls predict a change of colors with the triumph of Biden by 50% of the votes compared to 44% that predict for Trump.