Spanish researchers have developed a computer simulator that can reproduce the COVID-19 epidemic in Europe. Taking Spain as an example, preliminary results indicate that more than 3 million people have been infected, including asymptomatic people, but if distancing measures are not taken, the second wave may infect 14 million people.
Confirmed cases coronavirus In Spain, it was approximately 117,000 on April 3, but according to the new Computer simulator Designed and verified by a team of Spanish researchers, this number may exceed 3 million, which is close to the number shown by other recent estimates.
The new simulator is called inscription And allow to study the development of the disease Coronavirus disease According to the weather, social distancing policies and traffic and other parameters, they will be deployed throughout Europe.
This work was sponsored by the Carlos III University of Madrid (UC3M), National Epidemiology Center (CNE) And the Red Biomedical Research Center (The internet) (Carlos III Health Institute)ISCIII), in the Barcelona Supercomputer Center-National Supercomputer Center (Balanced scorecard).
Using new tools, it is possible to analyze the spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 It also simulates the curve of the disease, including isolation measures, predicts evolution based on permitted activities, and evaluates the possible impact of vaccination on the spread of epidemics.
In this way, the results obtained indicate that the number of cases may be much higher than the number of cases detected at the national level, covering more than 3 million people, including asymptomatic.
If no action is taken, there is a danger of regeneration
In another case where they simulated the process of reintegrating into face-to-face work, they found that if reintegration was not supplemented by social distancing and physical protection measures, the epidemic might reproduce. The probability is very high.
under these circumstances, The second curve may be between three and fourteen million, Depending on the distance policy applied.
The simulator allows you to recreate various social features Population group (Students, workers, the elderly and the unemployed), the relationship between them Different environment (School, work, home and spare time) and transportation models to simulate the spatial dynamics of the virus spreading between different regions.
In addition, EpiGraph also includes the spread of COVID-19 and Climatic factors And weather For example temperature, atmospheric pressure and humidity level.
This work has been coordinated in the “Computer Architecture, Communication and Systems” group (Arcos) From UC3M, he has rich experience in real-time system simulation and high-performance computing.In addition to the participation of scientists and technicians from BSC-CNS and ISCIII, they also Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention.