The risk of regrowth advances without brakes

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It is true that as more tests are done, more positives of coronavirus. But the truth is that incidence of covid-19 in Catalonia it has been growing for days. Today the risk of regrowth, which measures the potential growth of the pandemic, has amounted to 194,25, compared to 186.86 yesterday. And in Barcelona is already in 243,21 (224.37 on Tuesday). This index ranges from 0 to 100 and it is understood that less than 30 represents a low risk of regrowth; between 30 and 70, moderate; between 70 and 100, moderate-high; and more than 100 is considered very high. Even so, in July this index reached close to 500 in areas such as Hospitalet de Llobregat (Barcelona).

Also, also this Wednesday the Emergency Plan for Civil Protection of Catalonia (Procicat) has approved, as requested by the Ministry of Health, limit meetings to a maximum of six people and no 10, number of people who could congregate until now. It has also decided to apply restrictive measures in the Cerdanya region (the same that were applied a week ago in Girona and Salt) and recommends its inhabitants not to leave the house. Among these restrictions are the reduction to 50% of the capacity in bars and restaurants.

The ‘Minister’ of the Interior, Miquel Sàmper, has asked citizens to avoid travel to areas like La Cerdanya taking advantage of holidays on the occasion of goods, in Barcelona, ​​which starts today. This region of Girona is, today, the hot spot for the coronavirus in Catalonia. “For the people who have to go to Cerdanya, and with all the empathy, we do not have any authorization to make restrictive indications, but as a recommendation it is better not to travel,” Sàmper pointed out.

“Whoever can avoid traveling, should not travel. With a massive departure to Cerdanya we will not have a response for 15 days, and it may cause a lack of control of the situation “, has added the ‘conseller’.

The figures for this Wednesday

Catalunya has added today 800 new infections by coronavirus, raising to 156,327 the accumulated confirmed positives since the start of the pandemic. These are lower data than in recent days, but we must not forget that the risk of regrowth continues to rise, something that worries health experts. In addition, today they have been notified 16 more deaths (compared to 6 on Tuesday), bringing the total death toll to 13,266.

The ‘Minister’ of the Interior, Miquel Sàmper, warns that moving to La Cerdanya this bridge may cause a “lack of control”

Regarding the admitted patients currently, the figure stands at 790 throughout Catalonia, 10 less than on Tuesday. A total of 151 patients are admitted to intensive care units (ICU), 16 more than in the last balance.

For its part, Spain has registered 1,289 new cases of covid-19 and 130 deaths, compared to 241 deaths on Tuesday.

“Concern”

For the Head of Infectious Diseases at the Vall d’Hebron Hospital in Barcelona, Benito Almirante, in Catalonia “there are reasons for concern”, although, in his view, “There is nothing right now that suggests that the hospital system will overflow.”

“In Madrid it seems that they are reaching a compromised situation, but in Catalonia it is not happening,” he says. In Vall d’Hebron, the largest hospital in Catalonia, “no activity is being stopped.” The center had yesterday 50 hospitalized patients, 15 of which were in ucis. “The situation is like June,” he clarifies.

But, although the hospitals are not living in an overwhelming situation, the primary care centers (CAP) are very stressed, with physicians who have up to 160 patients on the waiting list. This is so because primary care is detecting 90% of total cases.

“Madrid is reaching a compromised situation, but in Catalonia that is not happening”

Benito Admiral

Head of Infectious Diseases of Vall d’Hebron

According to Almirante, Catalonia is better than in early August because they took “many very effective measures”, such as population screening, which are finding between 2% and 4% of asymptomatic people whose detection serves to cut the chains of transmission.

“Also, in Catalonia, which has a more proactive attitude than other autonomous communities, things are being done in a more orderly manner since they changed the direction of Public Health “, believes this expert. The screenings in schools, which began yesterday, will also help control the situation.

For all these reasons, Almirante does not believe that there is currently a “risk” of collapse of the system. “If that happened, it would mean that prevention measures are useless. When the system collapsed, we had not taken any measures, only confinement,” concludes this infectious disease specialist.

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