It is the annualized projection, with a record rebound of 7.4% in the July-September period, after the coronavirus hit. But experts warn that the crisis did not come to an end.
The United States economy grew 7.4% in the third quarter of the year compared to the previous three months, which represents the first rebound since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, thanks to the opening of activity due to the drop in cases in summer, the Commerce Department reported this Thursday.
The data for the third quarter, the first of the three estimates made by the US Executive, is produced after the 9% crash recorded between April and June.
If the country’s activity is measured on an annual basis, the economy grew at a rate of 33.1% in the third quarter of the year.
“The increase in the third quarter of GDP reflected the continued efforts to reopen businesses and resume activities that were postponed or restricted by the covid,” explained the Commerce Department in its report.
Consumer spending, which in the US accounts for two-thirds of activity, soared 40.7% between July and September, while business investment increased 70.1%.
Despite the large rebound last quarter, economists warn that given the current increase in cases in the United States, the country with the most coronavirus infections and deaths in the world, It is feared that the activity will soften due to the reimposition of limitations in some areas from the country.
“This is the quarter that captures the reopening of the economy … but it is far from clearly indicating that the economy is in great shape,” Tim Quinlan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities, said in a note to clients.
The MBA consulting firm indicated in a note that it expects the growth rate to bee slow down in the fourth quarter and at the beginning of next year, but he estimates that the expansion will continue, as long as the current rise in covid cases does not imply new confinements.
For the analyst Gregory Daco, from the Oxford Economics consultancy, the solid performance of the GDP “gives a false impression on the true state of the economy “and does not allow predicting what will happen in the fourth quarter.
The palpable uncertainty knocked down the Wall Street indicators that closed with losses of more than 3% on Wednesday, and also weighed down the exchanges of oil, a raw material very sensitive to the expectations of activity and consumption.
Although the measurement used for this indicator projects the results of a quarter in 12 months, if only this period is compared with that of 2019, the GDP registered a contraction of 2.9%.
This Thursday, the Department of Labor published figures on new applications for unemployment assistance, which fell for the second week in a row to 751,000 applications, below analysts’ expectations.
Although claims for layoff assistance fell from their peak of 6.8 million in March, they are still higher than in the worst period of the Great Recession of 2007-09.
It is the last major economic indicator to be known in the US before the general elections on November 3, in which the current president, Republican Donald Trump, seeks re-election against his Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden.
Days before citizens go to the polls, Trump took advantage of the data to criticize his rival democrat.
“The GDP figure has just been known. The highest and best in the history of our country, there is not even anything that comes close. Next year will be fantastic. However, Joe Biden and his record tax hike proposal would end all of this, “said the president on his Twitter account.