A professor from the Rey Juan Carlos University (URJC), Alejandro Meca, together with researchers from the Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), the Carlos III Health Institute and several specialists from the Infanta Sofía Hospital have created a pneumonia death prevention model in patients with covid-19.
To develop the model, a sample of 2,000 patients admitted to the Infanta Leonor Hospital during the first wave of the pandemic was studied and, thanks to the data obtained, nine variables were established based on clinical and analytical information.
This model arises from the need to facilitate decision-making in emergencies and was launched “at a very critical moment”, when there was “a total ignorance of the disease and the hospitals were in a situation of high saturation “, highlights the university in a note.
In this circumstance, doctors Pablo Ryan and Juan Torres, from the Infanta Leonor hospital, commented on the possibility to Meca, member of Preventive Medicine and Public Health of the URJC, to carry out a predictive model of hospital death and began to develop the idea together with Daniel Vélez, expert in predictive models at the UCM.
Each of the nine variables that make up the model determines a score that is correlates with risk of death, which has made it possible to develop a system so that health workers can have more accurate criteria when choosing the treatment to be followed by the patient and whether or not they should be admitted.
This prevention model was implemented in early October at the Infanta Leonor Hospital in Madrid and the doctors affirm that “makes decision making much easier and it would be advisable to extrapolate it to other centers “.
“The margin of error if we compare it with the literature is in line with what has been published so far, around 82% predictive capacity That is not little, “says Meca, who has created a free to use online calculator to propagate the model.
Only applicable to hospitalized patients
In this way, doctors can enter in this online calculator, which is for hospitalized people and is not applicable in another area, the data of the patients, obtaining variables for ddecide whether or not the patient is at high risk of death for pneumonia.
“The values that we use are values that are collected by system upon the arrival of the patient to the hospital and are stored and recorded in their medical history,” adds the URJC researcher, who insists that the coronavirus affects each person in a different way. different “even having similar pathologies”.
This study, carried out by professionals from various services such as Preventive Medicine, Pharmacy, Pediatrics, Emergencies y Medicina Interna, fue publicado en la revista ‘Journal of Clinical Medicine’ con el título ‘The Pandemyc Score. An easily applicable and interpretable model for predicting mortality associated with Covid-19’.