Researchers from the University of the South in Denmark have presented an efficient model to study and forecast the dynamics of propagation and containment of the Covid-19 in different regions of the world. Thus, they have observed that the measures of social distancing they are more effective than cross-border travel limitations in delaying the peak of the epidemic.
“The results corroborate our finding that the travel between regions triggers the diffusion of the epidemic, which then develops in each region independently, “says professor of theoretical physics, Francesco Sannino, of the University of Southern Denmark and the Danish Institute of Advanced Sciences.
The research, which has been published in ‘Scientific Reports‘recalls that virus-induced pandemics such as Covid-19 are a threat to humans not only because of the number of human lives that are taken, but also because of the deep and lasting impact on the economy and social dynamics.
“A coherent framework is missing”
While there are already different empirical models to describe the dynamics of the epidemic locally and globally, “a coherent framework is lacking,” he says. Using powerful language and methodology borrowed from high-energy physics, Professor Sannino and his colleague Giacomo Cacciapaglia from the University of Lyon are now able to study and forecast the dynamics of propagation and containment in different regions of the world.
“We plan to embark on a world monitoring to make global projections that will help governments and industries develop containment plans and strategize on reopening society and the best way to implement border control, “adds Sannino.
Specifically, they showed that social distancing measures are more efficient than border control in delaying the epidemic peak. “Our results complement and go beyond those of a previous study, focused on China through a traditional compartmental model, which found that the intercity travel ban delayed the peak of infection by 2 to 5 days, “they explain.
Their numerical calculations show that the impact can be stronger if the travel ban takes place in the early stages. They also discovered that early implementation of social distancing measures have a much stronger impact, with a delay of up to 4 weeks at the peak.
The interaction of travel restrictions and social measures was also studied through compartmentalized models for Italian regions. “The results corroborate our finding that travel through the regions triggers the spread of the epidemic, which then develops in each region independently,” they warn.