“The evolution of the pandemic in Spain is fast and ascending”, as was stated this Monday by the director of the Center for the Coordination of Health Alerts and Emergencies, Fernando Simón. The situation is so worrying that the focus is on the health system. The epidemiologist, although he has not spoken of collapse, points out that there is “significant pressure” and there are even hospitals “in very critical situations.”

“We have 13.7% hospital occupancy and 24.2% occupancy of ICU beds. We are not in collapse but the pressure is very important. Yes, there is a hospital that is in a very critical situation right now, “Simón explained at the press conference this Monday.

The epidemiologist has been concerned about the situation of Covid in Spain and maintains that it is “very likely that if all the measures that are being proposed are not implemented correctly, transmission and incidence will continue to increase rapidly at least during the next few weeks. “. Something that will entail that in mid-November “We are in a serious situation” with many ICU admissions.“It is very possible that in mid-November, perhaps in the third week, there is a significant number of ICUs in a very very difficult situation“, he regrets and adds that” if the measures that are applied have a rapid impact we may be able to avoid that collapse. “ But this impact on the ICU is observed between 10 and 20 days after the transmission period.

The most important measure, for Simón, is to protect the most vulnerable groups since they are the ones with “high probabilities“to enter the ICU.” We know that the stay in the ICU is extended especially in people at risk, “he adds and maintains that it is vital” to ensure that vulnerable groups are well protected. ” means locked up “since” we all have to be aware “of the” risk to which we expose them. ”

To this, it is added that, in some hospitals, high occupancy beds will reduce much of the scheduled activity, something that the communities are trying to avoid “at all costs.” “It will lead to delays in other diseases“, he stated. In figures, the director of the CCAES has indicated that there are several communities over 40% occupancy in ICUs and, according to data from the Ministry of Health, hospital pressure at the national level reaches the 13.72% of ordinary beds and 24.24% of intensive care.

Reduce mobility, respect quarantines …

However, despite the upward and unfavorable trend, Simón has specified that Spain it is not increasing its figures as fast as other countries, but, he recalled, that he started from “a higher basal point”. From Friday to Monday, some 17,000 new cases have been reported daily, which make 52,188 new cases and the incidence rate in Spain is 410 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

The pandemic is triggered in Spain: more than 52,000 positives since Friday, the maximum in a weekend

Simón has explained that the incidence is increasing progressively since even the effects have not been noticed of the measures implemented by the autonomous communities. The other data that worries is that “the number of asymptomatic cases continues being high, over 45%”, explains the epidemiologist, who has stressed that the early detection of these cases “it is of little use “yes then they do not fulfill the isolation. On this, Simón has stressed that if they are not fulfilled “scrupulously quarantines” it creates a problem that can only be solved “by imposing sanctions when they have to be imposed”. However, he stressed that we are one of the countries that performs the most diagnostic tests per 100,000 inhabitants, with a rate of 2,118 tests. “A huge effort,” he applauds.

“It is very likely that the evolution will continue to increase in the winter months”

On the other hand, it has demanded “good sense” from citizens to avoid mobility in situations that are not strictly necessary, especially before the possible displacements by the bridge of November for the holiday of All Saints. “If it is not necessary, it is better to stay at home than to expose yourself or others to risks,” he warned.

The winter period

“It is very likely that the evolution will continue to increase in the winter months, we cannot guarantee it, but it is very likely, “said the director of the CCAES. There is still no hopeful horizon for the arrival of the vaccine:” With good luck, before the end of the year, but it will probably be early next year and in the first months, “he assured.

On the other hand, once it’s in, not everyone is going to have access to it. This has been transmitted from the Ministry of Health in recent months and Simón adds that “the availability of doses, if they are available on those dates, it’s going to be progressive. ”

“With which first it will be necessary to vaccinate some priority groups and we will not be able to vaccinate, if all goes well, large population groups until the spring of next year. “A period of six months, like the one that has established the new state of alarm. For now, he says, we have to live with the virus because there is neither effective treatment nor vaccine and we must protect ourselves and others.