Donald Trumpin support faltered and Joe Biden rose after the first election debate. According to data collected by Real Clear Politics, five polls have been conducted since the debate, and the difference between the support of candidates has increased by three percentage points.
The debate was condemned to be appalling in general, and the president in particular spoke constantly over Biden.
According to the latest RCP average, Biden has 9.1 percentage points more support nationwide than Trump. However, the FiveThirtyEight website, which values polling companies and calculates support based on its own algorithms, estimates that the support gap has increased by less than one percentage point.
The wildest difference is shown by a measurement released by CNN on Tuesday by research firm SSRS, where the difference is a staggering 16 percentage points in favor of Biden. In the previous CNN poll, the difference was +8 in favor of Biden and +4 in the previous one.
However, CNN’s recent measurement is very different from other recent ones, meaning it may not be worth giving it much weight as such.
Dark figures from Rasmussen
Trump’s so-called approval, that is, how much of the people are behind his actions and how much against him, has only been measured in two polls after the debate. CNN’s result is in line with support, but Trump’s acceptance has also dropped dramatically in the Rasmussen Reports measurement.
That measurement company is typically favorable to Republicans, so changes in Rasmussen’s index when they turn against Trump are worth taking seriously.
That index, in which Rasmussen looks at how many are strongly on Trump’s side and strongly against him, was -14 on Tuesday. 34 percent of the people are strong supporters and 48 percent are strong opponents. The number has fluctuated between -11 and -1 over the past couple of weeks, but it hasn’t been this bad for Trump since July, when the U.S. peaked in coronavirus infections.
Rasmussen has taken his measurements every weekday. The company uses the three-day average in its most recent chapter, meaning Tuesday’s reading is entirely the result of a time when Trump’s corona infection was known.
According to Rasmussen’s weekly analysis, Trump was also seen as the loser in the debate.
Since only a handful of polls have been made, it is good to remember that given the margins of error, the changes may be smaller – or larger – than recent measurements suggest.
On a scale from A to F, FiveThirtyEight, which ranks companies, gives SSRS a B / C rating and Rasmussen a C + rating, meaning neither is actually an elite of surveyors.