Fujitsu research suggests quantum computing unlikely to crack encryption soon; IBM warns of need for quantum-safe strategies.
Quantum computers are not yet capable of cracking encrypted data, according to research conducted by Fujitsu. The company ran trials using its 39-qubit quantum simulator hardware and concluded that it would require a fault-tolerant quantum computer with approximately 10,000 qubits and 2.23 trillion quantum gates to crack RSA encryption. This is a huge achievement that the quantum industry is currently far from reaching. IBM’s Osprey quantum processor, announced in November, has 433 qubits. Fujitsu also estimated it would take 104 days for such a fault-tolerant quantum computer to successfully crack RSA.
Despite this, IBM is continuing to progress quickly, aiming to have a 4,158-qubit system by 2025. Intelligence agencies, such as America’s NSA, are also exploring quantum computing’s potential to crack encryption. As a result, quantum-resistant algorithms are still worth the effort. Fujitsu will continue to evaluate the potential impact of increasingly powerful quantum systems on cryptography security.
IBM has also been warning about the dangers posed by quantum computing, publishing a Security in the Quantum Era report which outlines the need for quantum-safe strategies. Adversaries may be harvesting and storing encrypted data now that could still be exploited if and when quantum computers become capable. IBM has also launched its z16 mainframe with support for quantum-safe algorithms.
Fujitsu unveiled its quantum simulator last year and plans to boost performance to 40 qubits by April. The company is also planning to build its own 64-qubit quantum computer in partnership with the RIKEN scientific research institute. The results of Fujitsu’s research will be presented at the 2023 Symposium on Cryptography and Information Security (SCIS 2023).
Overall, Fujitsu’s research highlights the fact that quantum computers are not yet capable of cracking encrypted data, and that the quantum industry is a long way from reaching the level of sophistication necessary to do so. However, it is important to note that IBM is making significant progress and that quantum-resistant algorithms are still worth the effort. Fujitsu will continue to evaluate the potential impact of increasingly powerful quantum systems on cryptography security.
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