No one in Moscow doubts that the Kremlin I would prefer four more years of Donald Trump. Despite the fact that the vast majority of the expectations created for an improvement in bilateral relations with Washington after the victory of the New York magnate in 2016 have not been fulfilled, among the presidents Vladimir Putin Y Donald Trump “there is a personal connection“completely absent in the case of the democrat Joe Biden, analyzes for EL PERIÓDICO Andrei Kortunov, director of the Russian Council for International Affairs. Despite this, the Russian president seems to “assume Biden’s victory” and multiplies the openings to “establish contact” with a possible Democratic Administration, he considers Aleksándr Shumilin, Principal Investigator at the Institute of Europe.
The last few weeks have been prolific in terms of gestures of the Kremlin leader towards Trump’s rival. “You have to admit things objectively; intentions of which Trump spoke (when he was elected) have not materialized, “Putin said in a television interview, in which he also surprised locals and strangers when assured to share with the Democratic hopeful one “ideological basis“A few days ago, the Russian president defended the activities in Ukraine of Hunter Biden, the son of the Democratic candidate, object of scrutiny in these days before the elections by Trump’s entourage, and came to assure that he did not see “nothing criminal “ in them.
Shumilin describes the atmosphere in the corridors of the Kremlin as “alert“Faced with the prospect of a leadership change in the White House. Kortunov believes that unlike what will happen in many European capitals during the american election night, in Moscow everyone will be able to “go to bed soon”, since the certainty is that, whoever wins, the “relations between both countries will continue to be bad“.
Differences between Biden and Trump
This does not mean that for Russia, both candidates mean the same thing. “On issues like arms control or the Iranian atomic program“, Kortúnov contemplates possibilities of cooperation between both governments, since Biden has declared himself willing to extend the life of the treaty New Start on long-range nuclear warheads or to recover the nuclear deal with Tehran. On the other hand, in matters such as the armed conflict in Ukraine, the analyst predicts intense conflict, since he foresees “more support“American to the Government of Kiev in case of Democratic victory. An important part of Biden’s agenda, one of whose main points is” the reestablishment of transatlantic ties and the strengthening of NATO “, will not be to the liking of Moscow, both agree analysts.
Of course, in the event that Biden, a member of a party that accuses Russia of having interfered in the past elections to benefit Trump, arrives at the White House, Shumilin foresees at least one “dialectical escalation“between both governments in the first weeks or months, not ruling out even the formation of a coalition of countries they have suffered destabilization campaigns sponsored by the Kremlin and led by Biden. This whole process could have started already, after the democrat called Russia the “main threat“for the security of his country in a recent interview.
Russia’s progress during Trump’s term
The improvement in relations that the Russian establishment envisioned when Trump won in 2016 has not occurred. The controversy over Russian interference has prevented the New York tycoon from drawing fruit from his personal sympathy with Putin. Of course, the chaos, contradictions and erratic foreign policy of the Trump Administration have allowed Russia to achieve a series of geopolitical advances in scenarios where Moscow collides with the West, experts consider. In the last four years there has been “a White House that has not conveyed an impression of strength against Russia,” he assured ‘Today’s WorldView’ Alina Polyakova, in front of the European Center for Political Analysis. Because of this, the Russians have been able to carry out “all kinds of tricks” in settings such as Afghanistan, Libya, Syria or the Baltic Sea, concludes.