Although it is the country with the highest relative mortality in the world, it is now three consecutive weeks where the numbers seem to go against the disease.
Peru seems to have begun to beat the pandemic because, despite the 700,000 infections and 30,000 deaths that it reached this Tuesday, presents positive signs that the disease is subsiding as he prepares for clinical trials of the vaccine from the Chinese laboratory Sinopharm.
Although it holds the title of the country with the highest relative mortality in the world from coronavirus, it is now three consecutive weeks where the numbers seem to go against the disease, with the number of new cases detected falling in a generalized way, mortality also falling and a much smaller number of hospitalized patients.
These figures, which are viewed by the authorities with a mixture of caution and optimism, draw a curve in which the second wave of infections, which soared with the opening of the economy and the end of confinement generalized that was decreed in July, is clearly down.
One of the aspects of greatest hope is provided by the fact that the rate of people recovered from the disease has been almost 15 days very superior to the new infected.
Thus, in the last week, the 27th since the beginning of the pandemic, they declared 42,811 new positive cases, while 59,582 people were registered.
Also significantly, the number of people admitted to hospitals for care for complications derived from COVID-19 has gone from a peak of 14,181 recorded on August 17 to 11,242 on September 7.
Mortality also points to a significant and steep drop, especially in the last days.
In this sense, data from the National System of Deaths (Sinadef) of Peru, which includes the excess of deaths for any reason in the country compared to the average of previous years, suggest that the deviation of up to six times more deaths daily that has been seen during the pandemic is approaching “normal”.
What is also undeniable is the extremely high prevalence of the virus among the population, which has motivated the Government to prepare a general study that allows putting a formal figure on the estimate of some “7 million people” that “easily” could have been infected in the country.
This was stated on Monday by the Deputy Minister of Public Health, Luis Suárez, in a note in which he stated that it is already known that the virus has infected 25% of the more than 10 million people who live in Lima and Callao, cities where a third of Peru’s population is concentrated.
Estimates made in previous weeks based on real data, but without having been part of a systematic and verifiable study, pointed out that the number of infections in Peru could reach 38% of its population 32.6 million people, with some areas much more exposed than others.
These figures are also the result of greater field work promoted by the authorities under the name of Tayta operation (father, in Quechua), a series of large interventions in various areas of the country to carry out house-to-house tests and detect and treat as soon as possible the infected vulnerable population, such as the elderly.
The figures led the Peruvian president, Martín Vizcarra, to affirm already last Sunday that the disease is “in its final stage”, although he specified that it will not disappear “tomorrow or the day after tomorrow”, but that it will take several months.
“But no triumphalism can be generated, we have to continue working as in the beginning. We are in the phase where it has begun to decrease (…) it may take months until the vaccine arrives, “he warned.
Fighting against this optimism has been one of the most arduous work of the Government in these days, with the authorities asking to be “cautious” before the possibility that there has been an episode of “herd immunity” in some cities of the country.
One of the biggest problems in Peru for the control of the disease has been that the population meets the minimum standards of social distancing, which precisely led Suárez to remember that “75% of the population is still susceptible” to becoming ill.