There are only six days until the US presidential election. No one can yet know what will happen next week. Instead, it is important to realize in advance that the setup is in many ways different from four years ago.
In 2016, Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton came to many behind a tree – for better or worse. This time, Trump’s victory would be an even bigger surprise, but still an impossibility.
However, the signs now seem to favor Joe Biden for at least five reasons.
1. Trump’s coalition wide open
Estimates of previous elections have highlighted that Trump’s victory was decided by working-class voters in a few Libyan-speaking states. That, too, is true, but it is also true that behind Trump was a broad coalition of voters across the country.
Trump last won, among others, among voters over the age of 65 and non-partisan. Even the highly educated women were surprisingly narrow behind Clinton, just seven percentage points apart.
Now Biden leads the polls in all the groups mentioned. In the latter group, the difference in favor of Biden is as much as 25 percentage points.
Of course, this time Trump can also attract new groups of voters: he has diligently flattered Latinos, for example. In any case, it now seems that the opponent is appealing to the people on a broader front.
2. Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton
As if choosing between plague and cholera, there was a flying utterance under the previous election. Where Trump evoked feelings as an exceptional presidential candidate, he also bore the burden of Clinton’s long public career.
Whether it was female hatred, general anti-politics, or something else, many downright hated Clinton. He was also associated with the sins of his wife Bill. It must be remembered that as early as the 1990s, conspiracy theorists even accused the couple of murder – although, of course, the allegations have never been substantiated.
On top of all that, Clinton was under police investigation for most of the election because of his email mess. According to many experts, the last nail in the coffin was when just 11 days before the election of the FBI chief James Comey announced that it would continue the investigation, which had already been dug.
Biden is a candidate from another country. He is a more down-to-earth and more reserved figure and, as a moderate Democrat, also appeals to many Republicans.
After four years of presidency, Democrats, on the other hand, are also so vehemently opposed to Trump that even the left-wing side of the scattered party seems to have settled behind Biden more harmoniously than four years ago. Biden himself has also moved in some of his positions to the left or in a more liberal direction during his campaign.
3. Voting in different categories
By Wednesday, more than 70 million Americans have already exercised their right to vote. It already accounts for more than half of all the votes cast in the last election. About 47 million advance votes were cast in the last election.
High turnout is good news, especially for Democrats, as the survey shows a clear majority of advance voters support Biden.
By the way, the basic rule is that Republicans do better in low-turnout elections, as their supporters vote more confidently than Democrats at all. Experts have already estimated that this year’s election could deliver up to more than 30 million more votes than in 2016.
In addition, four years ago, turnout was low in major cities in Libyan states such as Detroit, Michigan, and Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Democrats have traditionally been strong. In 2016, Trump won the entire state of Michigan voters by just over 10,000 votes and Wisconsin by just over 20,000 votes. Nationwide, Clinton received nearly three million more votes than Trump.
4. Polls developed
One of the most common misconceptions about the 2016 election is that the polls went right into the woods during the election. Rather, the problem was that the media misinterpreted the surveys.
For example, descending poll averages RealClearPolitics site reported just before the election that Clinton led Trump in polls nationwide by 3.3 percentage points. In the end, Clinton got 2.1 percentage points more votes than Trump, meaning the throw was just over a percentage point.
Biden is leading nationwide polls right now 7 percentage points. His leadership has been smoother than that of Clinton throughout the election year. Even if the actual election result differed from poll support as much as it did four years ago, there would still be some certainty about Biden’s “landslide victory”.
To what extent the criticism of the 2016 polls was that it was in the electoral states that settled the election that those who asked for support failed. The polls at the time did not pay enough attention to undecided voters or people hiding their Trump support. Admittedly, in most of the last-minute polls in the Libyan states, Clinton’s leadership fell within the margin of error, which the media ignored.
Now the methodology of the surveys has been developed on the basis of experience, the research director of Taloustutkimus tells Iltalehti Juho Rahkonen. On the other hand, the support of many for Trump is even more passionate – and more public.
5. Different final line
Four years ago, the stars were in place for Trump in the final weeks of the election fall.
After eight years as a Democrat, Trump had entered the arena as a reformer. The ranks of the Republicans looked tight behind him. The media wrote about Trump more positively than ever throughout the campaign. Less than two weeks before the election, the FBI reopened its investigation into Clinton.
This time the situation is almost the opposite. The coronary pandemic, poorly managed by Trump’s own administration, is raging in the U.S. in its third wave. The president himself contracted the disease during the last month of the campaign. Anyway, his lines and style are now familiar to everyone at the latest. In election debates, Trump was first accused of shouting and then presenting someone other than himself.
Trump can, of course, bang his braces after running into the Supreme Court in election week for the third time he has already appointed a judge and getting a good hit on Biden’s comment on the oil industry. Biden’s connections to the twilights around his son Hunter Biden, on the other hand, seem to go unconfirmed this time around.
Of course, all this does not mean that Trump could no longer win the election. Analyzing support surveys FiveThirtyEightin according to Trump, the probability of winning six days before the election is 12 percent.
At the same time, four years ago, the corresponding figure was 32% – which is also far from certain.