Researchers from China and the United States analyzed the impact of New York pandemic control measures. The results confirmed the importance of alienation to reduce serious cases, but showed that if the elderly are not well protected in public places, closing the education center will have little effect.
The coronavirus that causes covid-19 Already infected More than 100 million people have died globally and more than 2.3 million people have lost their lives. In terms of the scope of the pandemic and the changes it has caused in society, prevention and control measures taken by different countries have produced different results.
In this case, researchers from City University of Hong Kong (CityU), Chinese Academy of Sciences and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (USA) developed a mathematical model Analyze the efficacy of different non-pharmacological interventions (Non-profit organizations(E.g. English), such as school closures or social isolation in different areas of New York City (home, workplace, public places…).
After running thousands of simulations, the results will be published in the magazine confusion,show Social isolation Next to the total population Protect the elderly in public places This is the most effective control measure to reduce severe coronavirus infections and deaths, rather than closing schools, which is of little benefit.
“Schools represent only a small part of social interaction. The co-author explained that people are more likely to be exposed to the virus in public places such as restaurants and shopping malls. Qingpeng Zhang The students from CityU insisted: “Because we focus on serious infections and deaths, if the elderly are not protected in public facilities and places, closing the school will make little contribution to the school.”
Zhang Xiang SINC admitted that infected students can act as a bridge to older or more disadvantaged people. “But our results show that there are relatively fewer social interactions with schools than in other places. Therefore, if other public places do not have appropriate social distancing measures, the effect of closing schools will be less than expected.”
Example of model diagram: Compare coronavirus cases (including asymptomatic, mild, and severe) by age groups with different levels of social distance (non-pharmaceutical interventions or current NPI, school closures, social distance of the entire population or more) And death). ). / J. Yang et al.
To conduct research, the author used a method called SERD (Evaluation of susceptibility to infection, cases that have been infected, and have recovered from death based on age) SEIR / SIR, Emphasizes the role of specific patterns including age and geographic location in epidemiological models.
Zhang said: “These models are unique to different cities: good practices in one city may not be transformed into another city, although the ideal NPI can be done in any case. Curb the epidemic and minimize contact with societyThese economies are particularly important in cities like New York or Hong Kong, whose economies depend on international trade. In other countries such as Madrid, I think this will be applicable because it is a relevant economic center in Southern Europe, but since I don’t know the data, it is not a scientific conclusion.”
Taking New York as an example, the numerical simulation of the model shows that by the end of 2020, the control strategy of the model has reduced the number of infections by 72% and the number of deaths by 76% (considering Quartile Statistical data). The data also reflects that, as a densely populated city, the impact of schools is significantly less than the general daily interaction between the population.
The author emphasizes that although these findings have encouraging implications, The model still fails to capture the complexity As well as the subtle details of interaction with real life, it provides the perfect measurement standard.Including cell phone data, census, transportation and others Big Data They can help provide more realistic results in the future.
Yang Jiannan et al. “The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the prevention and control of COVID-19 in New York City.” confusion, 2021.