Macron leads a key 12 months surrounded by uncertainties

The French chief seeks to consolidate his electoral base and legacy for the presidential elections of 2022

The cruel, and in addition unanimous, criticism for the sluggish begin of vaccination in France has not been begin to the 12 months for the Authorities and that’s, above all, unhealthy information for its president. Emmanuel Macron has this 2021 left to consolidate his mandate and keep, as he’s anticipated to hunt to do though he has not but made his candidacy official, past 2022, on the head of a France that the pandemic has left extra impoverished, that feels once more susceptible after the latest jihadist assaults and stays deeply divided.

“Reconciliation just isn’t decreed. My fight just isn’t attempting to reconcile with appeasing phrases, the French know that it’s not solely phrases that may reconcile them, however motion, ”Macron defended himself in an interview in December in L’Specific. However for that “motion” he doesn’t have a lot time left – there are already lower than 500 days till the electoral appointment – and he does have many pending duties, past the battle in opposition to the pandemic, which can nonetheless final for months. And each gesture you make any longer, each step you are taking, will likely be analyzed extra rigorously than ever.

He noticed it properly in considered one of his first institutional outings of the 12 months. Though the Elysee assures that it was a tribute because it has performed to so many different predecessors in workplace – largely conservatives – its participation final Friday within the ceremony for the twenty fifth anniversary of the demise of the socialist François Mitterrand has been criticized as An try by the “president neither of the left nor of the correct”, as he has outlined himself, to wink at a left-wing citizens that supported him in 2017, however who feels partly deserted. “He promised to be each left and proper, and has been right-right. The leftist voter that I’m doesn’t acknowledge himself ”, he advised The world the author Philippe Besson, a detailed buddy of Macron.

Among the many turns to the correct which might be criticized are, amongst others, some elements of its rules in opposition to Islamist separatism, lastly baptized as a “invoice that reaffirms republican ideas” and which should now be mentioned within the Nationwide Meeting, or the worldwide safety legislation and its controversial article 24, which seeks to restrict the dissemination of photographs of legislation enforcement officers. His presentation provoked sturdy protests, additionally from the press, which coincided with the revelation of a number of scandals of police violence uncovered thanks, exactly, to citizen cameras. An issue that has led the Authorities to vow a rewrite of the article.

On this time period there was an “unprecedented phenomenon within the historical past of presidential reputation within the Fifth Republic: a change within the electoral base,” he analyzed in Le Figaro the deputy common director of the Ifop survey firm, Frédéric Dabi. If in 2017 Macron’s citizens “got here primarily from the left,” the 2019 European elections, he explains, confirmed the “slippage” of votes. “The leakage of part of Macron’s presidential citizens (40% now not vote for his get together) had been offset by features from voters from the correct,” he provides.

It isn’t simply the voters who’ve this sense: final 12 months, La República en Marcha, Macron’s get together, which nonetheless has not consolidated its territorial base, misplaced an absolute parliamentary majority after the defection of a number of deputies disenchanted with authorities insurance policies, who search to achieve floor on the favourite subjects —safety, immigration— of the correct and particularly of the far proper. There, in spite of everything, is the one clear rival thus far for 2022, the chief of the Nationwide Regrouping, Marine Le Pen, whom the polls as soon as once more place in a face-to-face with Macron in a second spherical in 2022 .

Political scientist Roland Cayrol warns that it’s too early to wager on a brand new Macron-Le Pen ending as in 2017. “There’s a legislation that has at all times labored thus far: a 12 months and a half after a presidential election, when the French are requested Who’re they going to vote for, they place two individuals within the second spherical. It has by no means occurred that these two individuals arrive, one thing completely unexpected at all times occurs within the final 12 months of the marketing campaign, ”he says. Macron himself introduced his candidacy for the Elysee in November 2016, simply 5 months earlier than the elections that he ended up profitable.

What if that unexpected occasion was now that Macron just isn’t operating for re-election? “He is probably not a candidate, he could must do issues, within the final 12 months, within the final months, onerous, as a result of circumstances demand it, and that make it not possible for him to be a candidate,” he advised Brut digital in December. Though it’s not a chance that he takes his personal group very critically – there isn’t any plan B – the reality is that Macron faces a really advanced panorama this final 12 months in workplace, with the problem of reactivating the financial system, with out neglecting that reform program that prompted him to the Elysee and that his setting ensures that it continues in any case.

The elephant within the room, because the Anglo-Saxons say, is the pension reform, which after the sturdy protests of the yellow vests in 2018 induced, after they appeared on the finish of the next 12 months and till the pandemic, the most important demonstrations in opposition to the Authorities and a historic public transport strike that paralyzed giant cities for a month and a half. Regardless of this, Macron insisted on selling it and solely the coronavirus pressured him to droop it, final summer season, with out since then he has overtly talked about it once more (he didn’t even cite it amongst his priorities in his year-end speech).

Simply in case, Philippe Martinez, common secretary of the CGT union, has already launched an advert. “If to cut back poverty, restore buying energy and safeguard employment, the Authorities considers that the one answer is to reform pensions, it’s enjoying with hearth and making a really dangerous wager. A lot ”, he warned within the Sunday newspaper, during which he introduced new protests as a result of “there’s a variety of anger concerning the social and well being state of affairs.”


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