- Six out of ten Finnish experts interviewed by IL do not know or do not want to predict the outcome of the US presidential election in November.
- Among other things, the development of the corona situation and TV debates may eat up Joe Biden’s current poll leadership before the election.
- The election is likely to be resolved again by a relatively small number of voters in the five constituency states.
The majority of Finnish experts interviewed by Iltalehti say that the situation just over a month and a half before the US presidential election is too even to predict the outcome.
Iltalehti asked ten domestic US experts about their prediction about the outcome of the upcoming election. Six of them did not dare to predict the outcome at all.
Three respondents anticipate the election of Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden as the new president of the United States in early November. The continuation of the incumbent president, Republican Donald Trump, was guessed by one defendant.
Biden’s cord may melt
Compared to polls, the experts ’responses may seem surprising.
In U.S. opinion polls, Biden has clearly led Trump virtually throughout the election year. Measurements of the following RealClearPolitics site According to Biden, management currently averages just under 6 percentage points nationwide. Analyzing polls FiveThirtyEight site Biden, for his part, predicts that Biden will win the election with a 76 percent probability.
Many of the experts interviewed by Iltalehti admit that if the election were held now, Biden’s position would look very strong. Nonetheless, they list a number of things that can still turn the setup upside down before the third day of November.
These include developments in the US corona and economic situation, as well as future election debates.
– October is critical, sums up the docent of North American church history and American history Markku Ruotsila.
Some of the interviewees estimate that Trump is in a particularly good position to make up for Biden’s lead in televised debates and in the event that the U.S. economy looks positive before election day.
Not only is it difficult to predict the outcome of the election in advance, experts point out that the name of the new president may remain unclear even after the election day. Trump has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the election in advance, as clearly more votes will be cast in advance by mail due to the corona pandemic. Ruotsila, for example, bets on Trump’s lead in election day votes, but the confirmed result will possibly be left in the air.
The 2000 U.S. presidential election was followed by a mess like this when the situation George W. Bushin and Al Gore in the decisive state of Florida remained too vague to confirm. The election result was decided in Bush’s favor only more than a month later by the U.S. Supreme Court, which ordered the recount of the votes to be suspended.
The method of election makes it difficult
According to Finnish experts, the predictability of the elections is especially hampered by the indirect method of elections in the United States. The president is elected by electoral election. In almost all states, a candidate who receives more votes in that state gets behind all the constituents in the state.
Since most states are clearly leaning towards either Republicans or Democrats, a handful of so-called Libyan-speaking states will ultimately decide the outcome of the election. Citizens ’voices are therefore particularly weighty, especially in the states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
RealClearPolitics site according to Biden, it is still ahead of the averages of the support measurements made in all major Libyan states.
In the previous presidential election, Trump won Democrat Hillary Clinton relatively narrowly in all five Libra states. A doctoral researcher at the University of Jyväskylä, confident of Biden’s victory Jani Kokko points out, however, that, in principle, the system benefits Biden more: a Democratic candidate gets 232 voters from his “sure” states, while there are 204 voters from clearly Republican-majority states. 270 voters are required to win.
In addition, the decisive vote in elections remains in the hands of very few, not least because of the declining proportion of mobile American voters. With the polarization of society, a large proportion of voters – including in steady-state states – are automatically in either a Democratic or Republican camp based on their position on, for example, abortion or the health care system.
– Many Americans make their choices based on something important to them and personal. After that, nothing else matters, says the executive director of the Association of Finnish-American Associations (SAM) Lena Grenat, who, as a U.S. citizen, himself votes in elections in the state of Florida.
According to experts, the key will eventually be which of the candidates succeeds in one way or another in better inspiring the old and new voters to the ballot box, as well as those who do not normally vote at all.
– The decisive factor is who will eventually seek and be able to use their voice despite the pandemic, sums up the Visiting Researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Maria Annala.
That’s how they replied
Iltalehti asked the experts two questions:
1. Which do you bet on winning the election, Trump or Biden?
2. How do you justify your assessment?
Here’s how the experts responded:
Maria Annala, Visiting Researcher, Institute of Foreign Policy
1. Both candidates have a chance to win. If the election were held now, I would bet Biden would win, but there is still a long way to go before November.
2. Predicting a winner in these elections is exceptionally difficult because the coronavirus pandemic makes it significantly more difficult to organize and vote. What is crucial to the end result is who will eventually seek and be able to use their voice despite the pandemic.
Emil Elo, US correspondent for Kauppalehti
2. With the current data, it would be difficult to justify any other answer.
Lena Grenat, Executive Director of the Federation of Finnish-American Associations (SAM)
1. At the moment, I don’t think the victory of either is entirely certain.
2. Although, according to many polls, Biden has a leading position, the situation is still completely uncertain, as many of the Libyan states are in a crucial position. Many don’t see Biden as a strong enough candidate, and he doesn’t represent anything “new”.
Many Americans make their choices based on something important to them and personal, rather than necessarily looking at big global policies. For example, if the voter threshold issue is abortion, Black Lives Matter, health care, or employment, the choice will already be made at that stage. After that, nothing else matters.
The forthcoming bilateral debates will be significant, and I fear how Biden will succeed in them. Can he present himself as a dynamic, solution-focused leader? Then there are all the potential messes associated with postal voting that can challenge the final voting result so that it is delayed for a long time.
Kristiina Helenius, CEO of Nordic West USA
1. I don’t bet! It’s not part of my habits and especially not my job description. Right now, and with the metrics we have at our disposal, Joe Biden is in the lead.
2. While Biden doesn’t really inspire anyone, he also doesn’t have the same raging opposition that Clinton had four years ago. Exceptional circumstances, including micro-marketing and advance voting, have made evaluation tools even more uncertain. The flawed metrics we have show 49 days before the election that the Democratic candidate is leading. That doesn’t mean he wins.
Jani Kokko, dissertation researcher in American politics and history at the University of Jyväskylä
2. Weak economic situation in the United States (especially‘and dealing with the coronary crisis make Biden a stronger candidate than Trump. In addition, electoral mathematics benefits Biden more than Trump. Of the seven scales‘from the angelic state, Biden has to win only three to win, but Trump has to win almost everything.
Juho Rahkonen, Research Director of Economic Research
1. I bet Trump will win the election.
2. Although, based on support measures, Trump is now more in the lower nail than four years ago against Clinton, the incumbent president is always strong in principle. The coronary crisis and unemployment are turning the U.S. atmosphere inward and into the country’s own problems. Even the stock market thinks Trump would be a better choice for the economy.
I look forward to meeting Biden and Trump in a live TV debate in water tongue. They have always played an important role in the U.S. election, and Trump is a better speaker than this duo.
Markku Ruotsila, Docent of North American Church History, University of Helsinki, Docent of American History, University of Tampere
1. The situation is even. Both have an equal chance of winning the election.
According to today’s outlook, it is most likely that on election day, Trump seems to be winning, but Democrats will not agree to it and will embark on a lengthy battle in the judiciary. Its outcome is impossible to assess.
2. Biden leads consistently in intelligence, but so did Hillary Clinton. Biden’s management, especially in crucial vaa‘Angelic states is lower than Clinton had in the corresponding period.
The interest rate crisis and the ensuing economic crisis will significantly worsen Trump’s chances. Without them, his victory would be more or less certain. The back of the economic crisis has already been reversed in the United States, and if the trend continues, Trump’s chances will rise, as an absolute majority of Americans believe Trump is better in economic matters than Biden. If the coronary crisis gets worse, his chances will diminish, as he will be less trusted than Biden. The cultural factors that explained Trump’s victory in 2016 have not disappeared either.
October is critical. Everything can turn on its head several more times. In any case, the election result will be very spotty and the election will be decided by very small groups of voters in a couple of states.
Mikko Saikku, Professor of American Studies at the University of Helsinki
1. If elections were held today, I would answer Biden (a clear majority of the votes cast, but only a meager victory among the electorate). However, the race is tougher than the polls suggest, and the outcome depends on who gets their supporters moving both in advance voting and on election day.
2. Actually anything can still happen. Trump has put even more pressure on the election debates than usual. On the other hand, some of Trump’s future voters are notorious for not expressing their views publicly or in polls.
Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Foreign Policy
1. Somewhat exceptionally, I am unable to answer the question.
2. I can say that unless Joe Biden wins by a large margin (over 15 percentage points), we will most likely see an ugly post-election entity.
Jukka Valtasaari, Finland’s former US Ambassador (1988–1996 and 2001–2005)
1. If bets have to be placed, I bet for Biden, but not big sums.
2. Prediction is extremely difficult because the support of the candidates has been the same for the last six months. Moreover, the incumbent President has had this in practice throughout the election period, and nothing has affected it. Voting today is more or less independent of who is the candidate at any given time. Voters have moved to the wings since Bush Jr. left the center and moved to the right. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders was covered in Hillary Clinton’s 2016 primary.