Electoral polls in the United States continue to give a clear victory to Joe Biden, with a difference of 7.5 points over Trump. However, in the key states the distance is very short and in these two weeks anything can happen, although for the moment, they seem to opt for the Democratic candidate.
Just over 10 days before the presidential elections and according to the measurements of Real Clear Politics, Biden would take at least 232 delegates to Trump’s 125. However, there is another 181 at stake that could finally tip the balance towards either side.
The democrat would be the clear winner in such important states in terms of the number of representatives such as California, New York or Illinois -the three add up to more than 100-, while Trump would win in smaller states that would add fewer representatives such as Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky or Ockahoma, with about a dozen delegates each.
Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania … Still no owner
In the air are still the 38 delegates from Texas, 29 from Florida, 20 from Pennsylvania, or 18 from Ohio, among many others who have not yet been assigned a candidate. It is precisely these states that maintain the alerts and make us wary of Biden’s comfortable 7.5-point advantage over Trump and in which both candidates will put all their efforts in the final stretch.
To get an idea of how close the vote is in these areas, look for example at Florida, where Biden leads just 2.1% due to the weight of Cubans and Venezuelans who support the president’s heavy-handed policy towards the governments of their two countries.
Florida, which does not have a fixed voting pattern, voted for Obama In the two presidential elections in which he participated, but in 2016 the winner was Trump, although it was by about 100,000 votes difference over the Democrat Hillary Clinton, so until the last moment it will be an ownerless state.
To try to capture his voters, this Friday the current president, Donald Trump, will participate in a rally, as well as his vice president, Mike Pence, while Democratic candidate will pull former President Obama to collect the maximum possible votes on Saturday knowing that the former leader won in this state both times he was a candidate.
The early vote already exceeds that of 2016 with more than 48 million
More than 48 million Americans have already voted early, a figure that this Thursday, 12 days before the elections, exceeded the 47.2 that did so in 2016, four years ago. In total, 48,674,556 Americans had gone to the polls this Thursday according to data from the states collected by the US Elections Project, of which 14,452,729 had done so in person and 34,221,827 by mail.
With these figures 35% of the total participation in 2016 has already been covered and they predict, once again, a significant increase in 2020. Among the states with a greater influx to the polls are Texas with 5.9 million, California with 5.1 and Florida with 4.2.
The case of Texas is especially significant since those 5.9 million votes to date represent 65.8% of the total participation in 2016, which many consider an indicator of Democratic voter mobilization. Other states that are expected to be disputed in 2020, such as North Carolina or Georgia, register 51.1% and 54.2%, respectively, of their total participation in 2016.