It is very likely that we do not know the winner of the presidential election on Tuesday night.
Patience, United States. Patience, the rest of the world.
It is very likely that we do not know the winner of the presidential election on Tuesday night. And if so, it is not necessarily a sign that something is flawed, fraudulent, corrupt or bad.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested that a slower than normal result is a sign of trouble. It is not.
“I think it’s a terrible thing that we can’t know the results of an election on election night, ” the president said Sunday.” I think it’s a terrible thing when states are allowed to count ballots for a long time after they are the elections are over. ”
It is not clear what the president thinks is a long term. But it is a standard practice continue counting votes after Election Day.
But first let’s see what the polls say.
National surveys are a good guide to the popularity of a candidate across the country, but they are not necessarily a good way to predict the outcome of elections.
In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but still lostThat’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always give you the upper hand.
Apart from that caveat, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national surveys since the beginning of the year. He’s hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead at times.
But the election is defined in the states that can vote for one side or the other, called hinge or pendulum. It is there that everything is played for everything.
And there, Biden’s lead over Trump is very tight.
In Pennsylvania, Biden wins by 4.3 percentage points, according to the Real Clear Politics average.
In Florida, Biden wins by 0.8 percentage points.
In Wisconsin, Biden wins by 6.6 percentage points.
In Michigan, Biden wins by 6.1 percentage points.