A new poll published this Wednesday by The Guardian gives a record 17 points to Joe Biden. What can happen?
Less than three weeks before the US presidential elections, the chances of re-election of Donald Trump seem scarce, at least if you believe the polls.
According to a recent survey by the consulting firm Opinion and the British newspaper The Guardian, Democratic candidate Joe Biden leads the current president by 17 points: 57% of those consulted affirmed that they would vote for the former vice president of Barack Obama, while 40% chose Trump.
This does not mean make it an irrecoverable difference.
Michael Dukakis led George Bush by 17 points heading into the 1991 election, but that poll was conducted in July, giving the Republican time to recover and win.
Until November 3, Trump has less than 21 days to discount the advantage.
It should also be noted that having more votes does not automatically equate to winning the election. In fact, Hillary Clinton was also ahead Trump in polls in 2016, and lost.
Given that the elections are decided by the Electoral College, a key fact to take into account is who wins in the so-called “swing states”, which are the states that usually change their political color from election to election, and that every four years crucial.
In that sense, The Guardian decided to monitor six of those states that Obama had won in 2012, and that in 2016 went to Trump: Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio and Michigan.
Currently, Trump is only ahead in Iowa and Ohio, but lose in the others, two of which are fundamental due to the number of voters it has: Florida contributes 29 electoral votes, while Pennsylvania contributes 20.
To consecrate yourself as a winner, it is need to harvest 270 of the 580 available voters.
After failure of pollsters in 2016, when virtually none could predict Trump’s triumph, this time all ask for caution when analyzing the data they offer.
Another issue that everyone is warning about is that Biden’s advantage stands above all based on postal votes.
This means that there is a possibility that in first hours After the vote, the result favors Trump, and that the trend would correct itself over time as the votes previously cast are counted.
For Democrats, an outright victory is the surest way to ensure that Trump’s conspiracy theories about a possible electoral fraud do not take flight.
The polls show that the events of the last month have been crucial to enlarge Biden’s lead.
The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the frantic race to replace her as soon as possible, Trump’s chaotic performance in the presidential debate and the wave of COVID-19 infections in the White House, have hit the reelection aspirations of the president.