Americans and those who were watching the outcome of the US elections went to sleep on Tuesday with the feeling that Donald Trump would stay another four years in the White House. But they woke up to a completely different scenario, with a Joe Biden with a greater chance of winning. What happened in between?
Trump opened the night with a resounding victory in Florida and then Ohio, two key states that are generally on the road to victory. It had strong advantages in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin, plus the states that are usually Republican. When the scrutiny in those districts progressed, they reached almost 80% or more of the count and it seemed like an irreversible advantage, Trump was publicly proclaimed the winner, while Biden asked for patience.
But later the counting of early votes began to arrive, most by mail in those key states. As in general the votes by mail are from urban centers, from people concerned about the contagion of the coronavirus in the electoral headquarters, it is estimated that the vast majority are Democrats. That’s why the numbers in those states began to change rapidly at dawn: Biden went on to lead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada, which opened the doors to reach the White House, even without Pennsylvania.
What can happen now? With a record turnout, 100 million people voted in advance. With nearly 70 million votes, Biden is on his way to being the most voted president in history, 3 million above its rival. It is very possible that the few votes that remain to be counted (some will only be counted on Friday, we will have to wait) are Democrats because they are by mail. In Pennsylvania Trump maintains an advantage, but the remaining votes are from districts such as Philadelphia and surrounding areas that are overwhelmingly Democratic. Even without Pennsylvania, Biden could win with Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Aware that his second term is threatened, Trump has been tweeting since last night that there is fraud, that they are robbing him and that “surprise votes” appear that are Democrats. That is true, they may be surprising for him, but they are legal votes that “appear” now because the court determined that they should be counted at the end, the scrutiny could even be extended until Friday, as long as the postmark indicated that it had been issued before Tuesday.
According to experts, it is possible to ask for the count only when there is a difference of less than 1% and this is the case of Wisconsin, although it would be difficult for a new count to turn 20,000 votes, the advantage that Biden has there. “They would have to discover a tremendous error,” he told Clarion election law specialist Louis Caldera.
So far there have been no complaints of irregularitiesOnly Trump sought to install the issue with his statements, something very typical of him. The insistence of certain “alternative facts” – a term coined by former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway – is to foreground a story that benefits him should he ultimately lose. The strategy is also to ask that the vote count be stopped. But, as in any democracy, you just have to wait for all the votes to be counted.