The vulnerability of the president seeking reelection, even in states with a conservative tendency, highlights the precariousness of his political situation less than six weeks before the elections.
El presidente Donald Trump is on the defensive in three Republican states where he won in 2016, as he is slightly behind Joe Biden in Iowa and struggles to stay ahead of him in Georgia and Texas, as Trump continues to face opposition from women that has also jeopardized his dominance. party in the Senate, according to a poll conducted by The New York Times y Siena College.
Trump’s vulnerability even in conservative-leaning states highlights how precarious his political situation is less than six weeks before the elections. While he and Biden compete fiercely for traditionally undecided states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida, the poll indicates that Biden has assembled a coalition significant enough to put Trump in danger. even in historically Republican areas of the South and Midwest.
A deep gender gap in these three states works in Biden’s favor, as the former vice president concrete advances into conservative territory. with strong support from women. In Iowa, where Biden leads Trump 45% to 42%, she outstrips her among women by 14 percentage points. Men prefer Trump by 8 points.
In Georgia, where the two candidates are tied at 45%, Biden she has a 10-point advantage among women. Trump leads among men by a similar margin of 11 percentage points.
The significant margin in favor of Trump among Texas men is enough to give him a small advantage of 46% to 43% there. Men prefer the president over his Democratic opponent by 16 points, while women support Biden by a margin of 8 points.
There was also a significant gender gap in the 2016 election, but at the time she leaned in favor of Trump because men were extremely supportive of him, according to exit polls. In the Times poll, Biden sharply reduced Trump’s lead among men while extended lead Hillary Clinton had in 2016 among women in Texas and Iowa.
In Georgia, Biden’s lead among women was basically equal to Clinton’s final lead in the 2016 race. But while Trump triumphed over Georgia men by 23 points four years ago, in the Times poll his lead was than half that margin among statesmen.
The vast majority of voters – roughly 9 out of 10 in all three states – they say they have already decided who they are going to vote for, which leaves relatively little margin for last minute events to modify the overall percentages of the contest.
The survey, conducted by telephone among likely voters Sept. 16-22, had a margin of sampling error of 4 percentage points for Texas and 5 for Iowa and Georgia.
Trump’s tenuous dominance in some of the nation’s largest Republican states offers Biden unexpected political opportunities and sparked debates among Democrats about how much energy to put into contesting states that are a long way from the traditional presidential battlefield. So far, Biden has made efforts in a handful of states that voted emphatically for Trump four years ago, including Georgia and IowaBut he has resisted pressure to compete in Texas, a huge and complicated state in which Democrats believe they are not likely to win decisive votes from the 270th Electoral College.
But the presence of competitive elections for the Senate in many of those states it has been a powerful incentive for Democrats, including Biden.
The asymmetric gender dynamic of the presidential election extends to the Senate races in Iowa, Georgia and Texas, where Republican senators will have to compete with Democratic candidates who have strong support from women. The gender gap is even pronounced in Iowa, where two women candidates are competing for the senatorial seats. Democratic contender Theresa Greenfield leads Senator Joni Ernst by 2 points and has an 11-point lead among women.
The poll in part coincided with Trump’s announcement that he would run a new Supreme Court candidate to fill the vacancy left by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, but it was unclear from the poll whether voters had one. particularly strong reaction to that possibility.
In Georgia and Texas, the election is also divided along racial lines. Trump wins about two-thirds of white voters in both Georgia and Texas, while Biden leads by huge margins among black voters in both states. Hispanic voters in Texas prefer Biden by 25 points, 57% to 32%.
Yet many of the same voters – in Iowa, which is a majority white state, and two traditionally conservative southern states – are not as dismissive of systemic racism as Trump. In all of those states, half or more of those surveyed felt that the country’s criminal justice system was a bigger problem than the riots.
And, as had happened in other polls the Times conducted this month in other competitive states, voters expressed having little confidence in Trump’s ability to heal the country.