“It’s impossible with this clown.” That phrase could be from Donald Trump, but quite the opposite: it was pronounced by Joe Biden in the first electoral debate between the two, and it shows the tension with which the campaign for the 3-N elections in the United States has been lived. On the part of both. The coronavirus pandemic has marked a few months that have been long and that have served, despite everything, to see the priorities of Republicans and Democrats. The former want to finish “the project” with Trump at the helm. Biden seeks, for his part, to recover the “Obama spirit”. Of course, both have strengths and weaknesses.
Trump: comfortable in confrontation and with a strong base
Donald Trump is not hiding. He is a leader with very little filter and that has been demonstrated in the four years he has been in the White House. Its strengths are almost as well known as its weaknesses. “We must take into account the brutal weakness of the parties, which do not exist between the years that pass from election to election,” he reveals to 20minutos Atrevia’s Director of Public Affairs, Manu Mostaza, who focuses on “the importance of the leader” in the case of the United States: “A good leader is everything.”
In the case of the current president, “he is still riding a wave of polarization” in which he rose as soon as he came to power. He is comfortable in the confrontation. “Donald Trump generates hatred and blind loves”, assures the analyst, who also recognizes that “we only get hatred in Europe.” This can be seen as an advantage: you know which part of the voters have insurance. “That is why he does not campaign in states that he knows are lost, it is logical.”
One of the Republican’s strongest points is precisely this constituency. Trump “has a very loyal following, especially in the rust belt,” says Mustard, that is, in areas that have been depressed over the years due to the industrial decline. “The current president has always maintained a nationalist and protectionist discourse” that in areas like these “has a good depth.”
“Trump has a very loyal following, especially in the rust belt for his nationalist and protectionist discourse”
But not everything is positive for Republicans, and the coronavirus crisis has exposed Donald Trump’s true weaknesses. “It is putting the political system in crisis and the pandemic is rampant”, adds Manu Mostaza in this regard. “The economic part was its great strength but now, with the crisis, it can turn a bit against it.” In addition, he has to count on the fact that “the Republican party is divided.” He arrives touched to the elections and, at the same time, the polls have raised the nerves in his ranks.
For his part, political scientist Edu Bayón explains that Trump’s campaign “has been chaotic. If he already is, his positive for coronavirus has added even more chaos in recent weeks”, but he clarifies: “It is still the same”. In the words of the analyst, the path of the Republicans seems clear. “There is a clear commitment to polarization and confrontation, in which constructive narratives are hardly glimpsed “.
But the coronavirus has disrupted the president’s plans, and that is his great weakness. They all agree. “Trump’s electoral outlook has worsened with the management of the pandemic crisis, lwhich has been really bad and has suffered wear and tear that it did not have“.
Biden, a “centrist” who belongs to the “elite” but mobilizes
On the other hand, on the other side they are not free of contradictions either. Joe Biden has many points for and against. “Biden is a member of the old elite”, and that “is something that could be negative especially among the new voters,” says a Mustard who does recognize the Democratic candidate a point in favor: “He has a very centrist profile, it is what a politician of the center would be in Europe, he has nothing on the left“, so” it can cover more and bring disenchanted Republicans. “
The former vice president of Obama has been blamed on many occasions for having a dull profile. Mustard joins that position. “She has never been too bright, she doesn’t have much charisma” aim. And it is that in addition, he is a candidate prone to error: goofs, out of tune, excessive comments … Biden has had to control his speeches a lot during the campaign, and already in the electoral debate he was seen as “not very combative” against a Trump who sought confrontation.
“You have to bear in mind that they are two candidates who are over 70 years old,” but Biden “has the advantage of being able to mobilize young people against Trump.” Bayón, in this sense, adds that in the case of the Democrats the situation is very different. “Biden is a bad candidate, I’d say he’s even a lousy candidate, but that he has very real options of reaching the White House, “he says.
“Biden has tried to keep a low profile, trying not to make mistakes and having his central axis of speech in throwing Trump out”
But what has Biden’s strategy really been? “He’s trying to keep a low profile, seeking not to make mistakes and having its central axis of discourse in throwing out Trump“, continues Bayón. Precisely, that is his star proposal, simply” to show himself as the least bad option. “Although not all is done for the Democrats:” There are polls that show that this may be enough for his triumph, but it will be necessary watch”.
Another relevant factor in Joe Biden’s candidacy has been the introduction of Kamala Harris as a vice presidential candidate, who “offers more assets than Biden himself, both for freshness and for social sectors with whom he can connect “.