The forecasts of the Community of Madrid on the evolution of the pandemic in the short term reflect a positive balance. A report prepared by the Ministry of Health, to which ABC has had access, shows that the downward trend of the last week will consolidate and the cumulative incidence per 100,000 inhabitants will decrease until it is slightly above the 500 infections at the end of the first fortnight of October. The date will mark almost a month from the beginning of the mobility and capacity restrictions in 45 basic health areas of the region, extended since last Friday to the entire territory.
From the regional government they maintain that the dynamics is not a matter of a day, but the consequence of the measures implemented since last day 21, which “began to work.” In that sense, in Sol they insist that the intervention of the Executive of Pedro Sanchez hides an attempt to “appropriate” the improvement in the Covid-19 records in Madrid, both in the accumulated incidence and in the burden borne by hospitals. In fact, the president Isabel Diaz Ayuso He already slipped this scenario in Sunday’s interview with this newspaper. “Everything indicates that the curve is flattening and we have data that shows that in the next fifteen days the trend is direct downward. And I know that Moncloa has them too, “he said.
Regardless of the knowledge of one or another administration and its intentions, the truth is that the scales of this analysis indicate a significant decrease in several classifications, compared to the last two weeks of September, when the second wave in the region reached a new peak. The most obvious would be the average incidence at 14 days, going from 813.1 cases on September 21 to just over 500 in the equator in October. These figures are in line with the last part of the Center for Health Alerts and Emergencies (CCAES), which estimated the Madrid rate at 647.91 cases, below Navarra, with 692.13.
The report, based on data provided by Escovid19data – “similar to those provided by the Carlos III Health Institute”, according to regional sources “- also indicates that the containment of the virus is recognized in the percentage of cases detected by PCR in the next ten days, it goes from almost 18% in early September to less than 10%.
The daily prevalence of hospitalized patients, ICU patients and confirmed deaths from coronavirus, however, continues to rise, although not at the same rate as between the first and second fortnight of last month. The patients in intensive care, for example, almost doubled compared to the beginning of September, while the deaths forecast for October fell compared to the previous weeks. Excess mortality continues to rise.
The conclusions of the study follow the line of the data provided last Friday by the Ministry of Health, with a reduction of 55 percent in the growth of new admitted and a drop in incidence in 37 of the 45 confined areas previously in the capital and other municipalities. Although in the area headed by Enrique Ruiz Escudero (PP) they emphasize that the levels of contagion and the percentage of positives by PCR will be at “acceptable” levels, they reiterate that the balance must be taken with “caution”, taking into account the nature of the virus.