In the United States, it is customary to speak of the “October surprise” (October surprise). The term refers to a revolutionary turnaround in the election campaign in the final month of the campaign – such as the reopening of Hillary Clinton’s email mess investigation in 2016 and George W. Bushin the revelation of a drunk driving conviction years ago in 2000.

– October is critical, one of the ten Finnish experts also summed up when Iltalehti asked them for a forecast of the result of the upcoming elections.

This year, the October bomb exploded shortly after mid-September, when U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 87, died on Friday of complications from pancreatic cancer.

The task of the nine-member Supreme Court is to interpret U.S. presidential law, and its decisions act as precedents for legislation across the country. For example, one of the best-known decisions of the Supreme Court, in 1973 Roe v. Wade, banned the ban on abortion throughout the United States.

Now Ginsburg has to choose a successor to the jury, and that’s pretty much a soap. President Donald Trump is likely to benefit from the mess.

First, however, a word about Ginsburg itself. Known by the acronym RBG, the judge was an icon of U.S. liberals whose life’s work is not to be underestimated.

President Bill Clinton appointed Ginsburg Supreme Court judge in 1993, only the second woman in the country’s history. Just over two years before his death, Ginsburg summed up his career by saying:

– I’m not asking for favor because of my gender. I just ask our brothers to take their feet off our necks.

Ginsburg was best known specifically for advancing gender equality, who was not afraid to keep cases of discrimination on the table even in the early stages of his career, at a time when the issue was being overlooked in male courts. Ginsburg was elected to Harvard Law School in 1956 as one of nine women among about 500 men.

As one of the sources of inspiration, Ginsburg has mentioned the years he spent in the 1960s at Lund University, where he became acquainted with the local legal system and also learned Swedish. Ginsburg has said he was impressed by the large number of female law students in Sweden.

In his last years, Ginsburg was externally fragile due to his illness. He walked in a crook and spoke in a soft, barely audible voice that the Liberal Americans listened to with reverence.

Something about the significance of Ginsburg tells the layman that two films were made about him while he was still alive: a documentary RBG (2018) and a feature film For the sake of justice (On the Basis of Sex, 2018).

Ginsburg promoted the peaceful coexistence of people, but the quarrel that followed his death began as early as the day of his death.

The successor to Ginsburg in the Supreme Court is elected by the President, and the appointment must receive the blessing of the Senate. Currently, both the president and the majority of the Senate are Republican, meaning they are more or less inclined in a conservative direction.

The Supreme Court judge last died in 2016, which was also the year of the presidential election. At the time, however, the president was a Democrat, and when Antonin Scalia passed from time to time in February, Senate Majority Leader, Republican Mitch McConnell said it would not be appropriate to elect a new judge in an election year. While no bylaws provided for this, the appointment of President Obama was not even considered by the Senate.

McConnell remains the majority leader in the Senate. As soon as the news of Ginsburg’s death came, he hurried to announce that this time the nomination process was moving forward at full speed – even though there were only 44 days to go before the election.

“President Trump’s candidate will be brought to the Senate for approval,” McConnell said unequivocally.

The election will be held on November 3. Previous Supreme Court appointment processes have taken an average of 2-3 months, he says news channel CNN. However, Trump will be sitting in the White House until January 20, when the next presidential inauguration will be held. Even before Ginsburg’s death, he has published a list of his potential judge candidates, among them hard-line conservatives.

Even if, in theory, Trump’s appointment as a new judge is likely to be completed, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden piled up early on Finnish time on Saturday that the election belongs to the new president elected by the people.

– I do not intend to vote on the appointment of a Supreme Court judge. There is less than 50 days until the election, the Republican Senator also commented immediately Lisa Murkowski.

It will further complicate the pattern, as one-third of senator seats will also be voted on during the presidential election. If Republicans experience defeat in this election, more Republican senators can step out of line and overthrow Trump’s appointment as judge.

Supreme Court appointments are for life. Five of the eight judges are currently counted as conservatives, and President Trump has already been allowed to appoint two of them. The Conservative judges now acting in the body are between the ages of 53 and 72, so if they all live to the age of Ginsburg, for example, the Conservative majority in justice will last for decades. One of the three remaining Liberal judges, after all, is already 82 years old.

In the coming weeks, then, there will be a rumble about something other than Trump’s failed treatment of the coronary pandemic or revelations regarding his questionable comments about the country’s war veterans, for example. The appointment in question is also a reminder to Conservatives, who are hesitant to vote for Trump, who is in turmoil, that only he can ensure that their values ​​remain in power in the Supreme Court.

Needless to say, the incumbent President will benefit greatly.

Ginsburg is said to have said to his grandson on his deathbed that he earnestly hoped his successor would be elected only when the new president is in power. The last wish of the Liberal icon now threatens to fail.