“The rise of China is positive not only for China but for the United States and the world order & rdquor;” judged Joe Biden when he was vice president, after returning from Beijing in 2011. He recently called Xi Jinping a bully, the leader with whom he will have to sit down shortly to discuss global issues, during an election in which he competed daily with Trump in beating Beijing.
It is evidence of how the perception of China in your country has deteriorated. China was fifteen years ago the sixth largest economy in the world and will be the first in ten: In less than a generation it will have ousted the United States. It’s hard to believe that just a handful of years ago there was still debate in Washington whether China was an ally or a rival. Today only there is a certainty that it is urgent to put sticks in the wheels to delay the inexorable. The overwhelming majority with which the latest punishment laws against Beijing have been passed, in matters such as Xinjiang or Hong Kong, reveal that only China unites Republicans and Democrats. And, in parallel with Washington, the population has fueled an unprecedented anti-Chinese sentiment: two-thirds of Americans view China negatively, according to the latest polls.
Chinese leaders will have attended the electoral recount with the calm that nothing is at stake because they already understood that the American political and social framework constrains any president and that hostility is here to stay. The recently approved Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes self-consumption and technological self-sufficiency, is understood in this scenario.
Changes are expected in the forms. Biden is anticipated a more academic diplomacy away from twitter, more consistent and with less vents. It is no small matter for Beijing, often disoriented with Trump, to have a sensible and predictable interlocutor. The disappearance of hawks like Mike Pompeo or John Bolton, on a permanent collision course, will also oil the dialogue.
No lurching in the background is expected but it is foreseeable that areas of joint interest will be explored. “Biden is willing to work with China on climate change, nuclear agreements with Iran, the World Trade Organization and other global issues. His foreign policy adviser has already made it clear that he is completely against the decoupling (disconnection) advocated by some in the Trump administration, says Stanley Rosen, a sinologist at the University of South Carolina.
It is also foreseeable that the United States will regain some of the global leadership that the “America First & rdquor; despised. Its withdrawal from the Paris climate accords and the Trans-Pacific Agreement for Economic Cooperation (TPP) have made Beijing an unlikely stronghold on environmental or free trade issues. China has also increased its footprint in a Europe that he lost the tune with the United States and his role has been strengthened in the World Health Organization and the World Trade Organization after the furious criticism of Trump.
The analysis of the effects of the Democratic victory alludes to the reestablishment of ties and multilateralism in contrast to Trump’s solo struggle. Who is unknown will prevail in the battle for global influence but we can already anticipate that the United States will jump onto the pitch after four years of no-shows. Biden has announced that he will negotiate the TPP, that agreement that Obama cooked with his back to China, and that he will accept the Paris commitments.
There is no sense of any solution to the trade and technological war or any rapprochement on issues such as Hong Kong or Xinjiang. But Trump’s departure could reduce friction in the Strait of Formosa after the loss of the most enthusiastic ally of the independence government of Taiwan. Trump’s stubbornness in stepping on all Chinese calluses it has pushed its policy irresponsible in a matter that Beijing considers sacred.
“It was even valued that US military ships or the presence of Marines on the island would dock. Biden is going to temper those policies. When asked recently what he would do if China invaded Taiwan, he replied that he would ask Congress, and was dismissed as ambiguous. Perhaps the temperature will drop in the strait because, without the support of the Republicans, the independentistas will reduce their challenges. And any improvement in relations between China and the United States is to cool down the Taiwanese issue & rdquor ;, points out Xulio Ríos, director of the China Policy Observatory. The expert judges that China preferred the democrat in the short term, to recover the dialogue, and the Republican for the long haul. “Trump’s suicide policy paved the way for China as a world power & rdquor ;, he argues