Research Director of Economic Research Juho Rahkonen is an ungrateful task to defend against gallop errors. In the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the media kept it clear Hillary Clintonin rise to become the country’s first female leader.
It happened differently. Rahkonen emphasizes, however, that the reason was not the polls that led to Clinton’s victory.
– Then you didn’t want to believe that Donald Trump could win. It was considered impossible. Polls were misinterpreted, Rahkonen begins.
– Trump’s probability of winning was then in the order of 30%. And that’s a pretty big probability.
Much has been learned from the mistake of four years ago. Trump’s victory is no longer considered impossible, although polls say it is much less likely than last time.
The United States is the home of opinion polls, and practices are constantly improving there. Clinton’s support seemed falsely high because the research team included too many highly educated people.
– That’s when Trump’s support fell under the radar. Lessons have been learned from this, and colleagues are now paying much more attention to education. Such adjustments have been made.
– Probably the studies now underestimate Trump’s latent support.
Addition of the incumbent President
Nevertheless, Trump’s entry into the second season seems highly unlikely. According to US calculations, this is a 12% chance.
Rahkonen himself considers it a little too small.
– I’d say it’s the same as throwing a dice. Trump’s chance of winning is the same as if you need one or six in an African star.
So, by calculation, we are talking about about 16.7 percent. That’s roughly half the situation in 2016, when part of Trump’s support went into hiding.
– We have to count a little more on polls because he is a sitting president, Rahkonen points out.
– But the chances are poor. He is more of an underdog than against Clinton.
Trump’s seams rely mainly on his ability to still turn the six states that are completely on the flip-flop side. Joe Biden is, according to polls, in every fine lead in them.
– Pennsylvania is crucial once and for all. It is a battleground for these elections. Biden leads there a bit, but the difference isn’t impossible, and Trump is now campaigning there frantically.
– Then, of course, in Arizona and Florida, the situation is even smoother. Trump also needs Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina. He is clearly in the lower nail.
Without them, Trump’s presidency will end in January.
– The still life is discreet. Trump campaigned as if for the first time trying. It’s funny when you remember that this is the person who holds the most influential task in the world.
– His supporters can identify with that. There are many who feel that life is a struggle and jobs are under threat.
For Rahkonen, the US presidential election is both a professional and personal passion.
– There is a lot to learn from there. And after all, this is also great entertainment. It’s a bit like watching a show wrestling match.