Two articles and one editorial British Medical Journal They warned that the challenge of delivering vaccines on a global scale may be as daunting as its development. Although there is no support from the United States or Russia, the COVAX Fund has invested in financing from some high-income countries to allocate roads to developing countries. The fund can help the world respond to this pandemic.
A kind 25% of the world’s population If the government and the company that develops and distributes these vials reach an agreement to sell doses, you will not be able to use the vaccine against covid-19 until 2022.Even if the drug company reaches Maximum capacityIt is said that until two years after the pandemic, one-fifth of the population on the planet can guarantee access to these vaccines. Articles published in the previous issue of British Medical Journal.
Other investigations Estimates published in the same journal 68% of the world’s population Anticipating receipt of COVID-19 vaccine, it is important to design a fair strategy to ensure that the vaccine supply can meet demand, especially in Low- and middle-income countries.
Both studies are ObservationalTherefore, the authors acknowledge the impact of uncertainty and incomplete information on their analysis.However, they show challenge Carrying out a global vaccination campaign against covid-19 will be as difficult as scientific difficulties, Grow vaccine.
Researcher Su SoA PhD from the Department of International Health of the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University in the United States explained to SINC that his team’s work revealed how high-income countries are The agreement was purchased for the supply of COVID-19 vaccines, but they left the rest of the world in a state of uncertainty.
“If we want to ensure the fair distribution of these vaccines, policymakers and the public need more. transparency Responsibility for these agreements. This transparency is also necessary for manufacturers, R&D costs, public sector funding and price agreements,” he said.
As of November 15th, some countries/regions have booked 7.480 million doses To 13 manufacturers (or 3.76 billion vaccines, which also require double or single dose vaccines).More than half (51%) of these doses are used in high-income countries, which represents 14% of the world’s population. The authors say that although low- and middle-income countries account for 85% of the world’s population, they will still receive the rest.
The estimated manufacturing capacity of this work is By the end of 2021, there will be 5.96 million vaccines, The price ranges from US$6 to US$74. About 40% of these vaccines can be used in low-income and middle-income countries, “although this depends to a certain extent on how rich countries share the results of their acquisitions, and whether the United States and Russia participate in global coordinated efforts”, they expect.
Even if pharmaceutical companies and distributors reach their maximum production capacity, Less than one-fifth of the world’s population You need to wait until 2022 to get the vaccine. This pastoral scene does not take into account human error that may occur when transporting fragile vials that require a cold chain; vaccines that are still candidate drugs and failed to complete their clinical trials; budget cuts or logistical challenges that have not been considered so far.
So believes: “The logistical and financing challenges of distributing these vaccines make it difficult to share the stocks of these vaccines,” So believes, the Covid-19 Vaccine Global Access Fund Kovacs Can exacerbate Global coordination in this sense.
Despite these efforts, the United States and Russia are still reluctant to participate in COVAX, despite the fact that in these two countries, there are companies responsible for the production of large quantities of covid-19 vaccines: Moderna, Pfizer, and Centro Gamaleya.
68% of the population expect to receive a mixed vaccine
Published in British Medical Journal, Researchers from China and the United States have estimated how many people are expected to receive a vaccine against the coronavirus.
Studies have found that the populations who will use these drugs vary greatly, depending on Geographic area, This objective It is expected to be achieved through vaccination campaigns (maintain basic services, reduce severe covid-19, stop transmission) and influences You may be reluctant to get vaccinated.
Nonetheless, they estimate that 68% of the world’s population (including at least 3.7 billion adults) expect to receive drugs to prevent covid-19.
The researchers concluded: “Each country should evaluate different strategies based on local epidemiology, the health of its population, the doses of vaccines available, and the preference for sports that favor the direct or indirect benefits of vaccination.”
“Wait until 2024”
executive director Right to health, Vanessa Lopez, Pointed out to SINC that if the current estimates and contracts between pharmaceutical companies and the country can be met, many developing countries will not receive the vaccine throughout 2021, or have to wait until 2024 if the situation continues until now. “
The HIV and drug access expert, who has not participated in the writing of these scientific articles, has expressed concern about the pharmaceutical company’s business strategy, which does not fit the ideal plan: a vaccine against COVID-19 is available all over the world.As she defined, this kind of “unbalanced profession” can be passed such as Canada“It has purchased enough vaccines, and the vaccines that can be vaccinated are five times that of its total population”, and 90% of residents in developing countries According to estimates by the foundation, they will not receive any doses next year.
He believes that one of the best solutions to achieve a fair and rapid distribution of vaccines is India ÿ South Africa In the World Trade Organization (WTO): “Temporarily suspend patent Vaccines, drugs and diagnostic methods designed to fight covid-19 before the pandemic continues to break out Group immunity worldwide”.
Lopez believes that if this consensus is reached, the suspension will provide these countries with Cooperation Not only for vaccines, but also for drugs or diagnostic reagents, it is very necessary to improve research, development and production capacity. In this sense, it regrets that although Australia, Brazil, Canada, Norway, Switzerland, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom and the European Union (including Spain) oppose this idea, One hundred WTO countries They do support.
Commitment to COVAX Fund
In the editorial letter related to these two articles, Jason SchwartzThe assistant professor of health policy at Yale School of Public Health (New Haven, USA) pointed out that many countries have already demonstrated their fair commitment to equitable access to common egg vaccines. COVAX Initiative, The company invested part of its funds in underdeveloped countries for dose distribution.
But he promised Surveillance exercise “To ensure that these wishes are realized in the coming months and years.” He continued: “The vaccination program will require unprecedented global coordination and the commitment of rich countries to logistical, technical and financial resources.”
He specifically pointed to the United States, he said: “Their participation is essential to ensure that all populations in the world have access to the covid-19 vaccine, which will ultimately help end this devastating global health crisis.”
According to the publication, Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada and Europe have made financial commitments with COVAX. This wednesday New York Times, There is no news from the United States today.
Anthony D, Woo Joshua. “Reserving the 2019 Coronavirus Disease Vaccine for Global Use: Cross-sectional Analysis” British Medical Journal(2020).
Wang Wei et al. “Global, regional and national estimates of target population size for covid-19 vaccination: a descriptive study” British Medical Journal (2020).
Schwartz Jason L. “A fair way to get a vaccine for the 2019 coronavirus disease globally.” British Medical Journal (2020).