The road to the White House runs through the Rust Belt, the so-called rust belt that runs through industrial states Y predominantly white of the north of the country, from Wisconsin to Pennsylvania. In its foundries, blast furnaces and car factories the american twentieth century was built, an increasingly distant memory after decades of unstoppable deindustrialization and abandonment, translated into a continuous population exodus.
Four years ago Donald Trump understood better than anyone the sleeplessness of this region battered by globalization and knew how to restore hope with his promises to renegotiate the commercial relationship with China, relaunch employment or bet on the local industry. Several states of Democratic tradition switched sides, building a red wall that is now cracking.
Trump won with authority in Ohio, Indiana Y Iowa, and it was imposed for less than 50,000 vsample in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin Y Michigan, as he stood at the gates of victory in Minnesota. The key was the white workers without university training that used to populate the factories and the massive support in the rural zones.
Nothing indicates now that it has lost the majority favor of both blocs, but its margins have been reduced. A poll from the beginning of the month indicates that the Republican maintains a 19-point lead over Joe Biden in voting intention among workers, but it is 16 points below that obtained in 2016. Although there are many factors in the equation, their broken promises to relaunch the industry and the havoc caused by tariffs in the field do not play in their favor .
Biden now carries advantages greater than four points in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and has brought both Ohio and Iowa back into play, a scenario very unthinkable until recently. “They are coming home & rdquor;the Democrat said recently, referring to his party’s former voters, disappointed with the inability of their leaders to reverse the region’s decline. “Even if we only cut the margins, the impact would be gigantic. Many White workers Democrats thought we had forgotten about them and they stopped paying attention & rdquor ;.
As Trump’s prospects clouded across the region, his campaign has cut down on Rust Belt advertisements to focus on other states such as Florida Y Arizona. But the Democrats take nothing for granted. An internal party memorandum maintains that the race is more even than polls suggest. “We should not underestimate Trump or his ability to reintegrate himself into the fight in the final days of the campaign,” read the document obtained by ‘Associated Press’.
The president has redoubled his actions in the region and has intensified his rhetoric. On Saturday he was in Michigan and Wisconsin, where he accused the left of “Wanting to destroy the American way of life & rdquor; e flood the region with refugeess. Trump also introduced Biden as “un criminal”, alluding to his son Hunter’s business abroad, a rhetoric that conveys a certain desperation.