Ayuso relies on misleading data to oppose the alarm

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Some autonomous communities accumulate long delays in notifications of positive cases, but the case of Madrid is special. This community drinks almost half, 48% to be exact. Stay with this data provided this Friday for the first time by the Minister of Health, Salvador Illa. It is one of the keys that explains why the figures offered by Madrid on the pandemic do not offer a faithful portrait of what is happening.

With the data provided by the Ministry of Health, the mayor of the capital, José Luis Martínez Almeida, has ensured that the city is already in 465 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days. The supposed accelerated fall in infections It is the main argument that both he and Isabel Díaz Ayuso’s team use against the state of alarm: “If our measures work because they impose the alarm?”, they ask rhetorically. But Health maintains that the incidence of the capital of Spain is 666 cases, 43% more. The difference is not exactly small. It should be retained, because it is a good guide to the deviation with which the Ayuso team has been offering the data.

Theoretical maximum of 48 hours

Once an infected person is diagnosed, the autonomous community must register the case and notify the Ministry of Health within a maximum of 48 hours. The step should be almost automatic but there are delays of up to seven and eight days. Since the 14-day incidence per 100,000 inhabitants is measured by the date of diagnosis, all the days that the notification is delayed are days in which that case is not counted in the accumulated incidence.

Let’s move on to the case of Madrid. His delay has been increasing and in recent weeks It is around five days on average with diagnoses that take up to 8 days to communicate. Let us remember that almost half of the delays of all the autonomies are carried out by Madrid.

The most real photo

The consequence is that the accumulated incidents in Madrid they are unreliable if they include the last five or six days, because you are missing many cases. Aware of this situation, the ministry included in its order and now in the state of alarm that the incidence at 14 days is measured with the data existing from the fifth day prior to the moment of the valuation. More clear. The Health photo covers from the fifth to the nineteenth days before the decision was made. It is not complete, it will still need some notifications that will arrive later, but it will be much more approximate.

The ministry has calculated from October 4 backwards the incidents to determine which municipalities should enter the state of alarm. Of the ten included in the order of Healing, Alcala de Henares has been left out, because it has 435 cases. The rest present these data, in order from highest to lowest incidence: Parla (926), Fuenlabrada (792), Getafe (732), Madrid (666), Torrejón de Ardoz (651), Alcobendas (643), Leganés (619) and Mósteles (514), that he came very close to being released from restrictions.

Growth

The data provided by Almeida is not strictly false. Today that should be the incidence of Madrid, but it is not the real one. Cases that have not been reported are stored in the computer files. Is the enormous delay in notifying you a product of the collapse of your Madrid public health system? Is it part of a conscious strategy to cheat with the data? One reason does not exclude the other.

The fact is that Madrid backlogs have seen tremendous growth since Health established the incidence at 14 days as one of the key thresholds to confine the municipalities. A tweeter fond of statistics analyzed last weekend how the differences between the real photo and the Community photo had grown in the week in which the thresholds were approved. It is advisable to read its entire thread. But remember: the real photo of this Friday of Madrid collects 43% more cases than those aired by Almeida.

Stabilization with slight drop

What is really happening in Madrid? Health, which has the most real photo, maintains that stabilization is taking place, Although the data must still be taken with caution due to two other factors, which will have to be addressed in depth on another occasion: close contacts and classmates with positive cases have stopped being performed. It is also necessary to analyze the impact of the irruption of rapid tests that are being used inadequately in mass screening.

The figures that allow less manipulation, those of hospitalized and admitted to ucis corroborate this stabilization, with slight fall in occupied beds and with stagnation in critical units. Stabilization, of course, in very high figures: 20% of the beds and 39% of the ucis are occupied by covid patients.

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