People have ordered record numbers of mail votes to their homes across the United States, where election day is starting to be around the corner. So far, ballots have been sent to people in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire, among others.
Advance votes will begin to be received within the next couple of weeks in Michigan, New Jersey and South Dakota, among others.
For example, in Florida, by the president Donald Trump practically needs an election victory, ballot tickets have been ordered clearly more for the homes of people registered as Democrats. By the weekend Joe Bidenia likely voters had ordered as many as 700,000 more tickets than people registered as Republicans.
In 2016, Donald Trump won Florida with 113,000 votes, leaving the president with a lot to worry about the actual election day.
The same pattern has continued in other states, with Democratic voters in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, for example, having ordered much more ballot papers than those registered as Republicans.
The activism of the Democrats in advance voting was, of course, known, and it is not yet possible to deduce the outcome of the elections from the ballots ordered. President of the Republicans Mike Reed admitted Politicollethat Democrats are likely to get far more votes than Republicans.
“Our voters will vote in person.”
Sleeping Democrats activated
The most problematic thing for Trump, however, is that according to statistics, many Democrats who did not vote in 2016 have now ordered ballots for their homes. In Pennsylvania, for example, some 175,000 Democratic voters who did not vote at all in 2016 have already ordered ballots to their homes.
In 2016, Donald Trump won the state of Pennsylvania by just over 40,000 votes, so in Pennsylvania, too, the president needs a big avalanche on election day itself.
The same trend in the awakening of Democratic voters has also been seen in Michigan and Wisconsin, for example, which turned very little to Trump in 2016. These two states and Pennsylvania are once again at the center of this election, and the situation does not look very good from a presidential perspective.
Trump may well still win the Libyan states and the presidency for himself, but there is not yet any long-term and widely measured data to support this scenario. It is entirely possible that the president will get a big avalanche on election day, but it is difficult to predict one for which there is no basis other than “strong feelings”.
Of course, the President has done quite well with blacks and Latinos, for example, which is a good thing for Trump. He has also not leaked his core supporters to Biden’s camp, which is also a good thing. The popularity among Christian conservatives remains solid, which is again a good thing.
The problem is that these single good things in Trump’s camp do not form the larger whole required for an election victory.
Nowhere in what has happened in the election so far has there been anything surprising. All the positive news for the president already existed a year ago. Sure, support has moved a percentage point here and there during the interest rate crisis, but Trump’s popularity has remained very stable throughout the presidency.
And that is precisely the obstacle to further dreams.
Trump received 46.1 percent of the vote in the 2016 election, which is likely to be the minimum level Trump needs in this year’s election as well. However, to reach 46 percent of the vote alone, Trump’s popularity would have to grow several percentage points from current levels, which is the least uncertain scenario.
It must be borne in mind that the popularity of the president has only once been more than 45 percent since the election. Otherwise acceptance rate has fluctuated between less than 40 and 43 percent.
Throughout the election spring, summer, and fall, the United States has been in tremendous turmoil. The hustle and bustle has followed one another, but the support of the candidates has not shifted much. According to polls, only five percent of voters are now considering their final candidate, who, according to mobile voter data, is more likely to be Biden in the end.
Polarizing Trump has fired the puck into his own goal in a certain way. For four years, a politician who has split the electorate in two has slammed, ended up as president of the United States, and slammed more. While many people have clung to Trump as a God-sent president, the majority of Americans have learned to shed Trump.
And the situation and people’s opinions are unlikely to change in a few weeks. Trump’s campaign this week has marketed the president with peace in the Middle East and the nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize, among other things, but even such headlines had no effect on support.
As has not been the case either Atlanticin and Fox Newsin revelations that the president has downplayed American veterans.
Simply put, an election is more likely to become a boring event than a colorful bipolar fight. Biden ‘s leadership is much larger than Hillary Clintonin four years ago, the first election data from Libra-language states supports the line of polls, and little evidence of Trump’s covert support has been seen.
The average level of support for both has remained the same, and neither of the party meetings has gained even more momentum in their campaigns.
The media needs to wake up with Biden
Of course, Biden is doing many things right right now. The candidate has stayed afloat and allowed Trump to also campaign for Democrats. He visits a lot in the Midwest unlike Hillary Clinton. In his candidacy speech, Biden never said “Trump”.
However, it would be a good thing for democracy if the more likely president were to be grilled more. In the United States, some media outlets have targeted their colleagues when Biden is allowed to fully implement his tactics at the moment.
Biden has appeared in front of the media, but the questions have been a mere whim – given that the respondent has FiveThirtyEightin is projected to become the world economic power leader with a 75 percent probability in a few weeks.
Many experts have saidthat China is likely to hope for Trump’s victory as Biden would rally the West together to oppose China’s policy. May or may not be. It would be good to hear from Biden about these things.
Such as tackling the interest rate crisis, sovereign debt, EU tariffs, climate change and reducing inequality.
As usual, Trump has also complained about the unbalanced treatment of candidates. Trump has a point in the argument, but it ignores the fact that he is the president of a crisis country.
It is inevitable that the incumbent president will face very different criticisms from his rival. In general, seated presidents win elections precisely because the position creates publicity and criticism, allowing the president to message his supporters much more than the opponent.
Strange in 2020, however, the situation is just the opposite.