Almost all of Spain is already at extreme risk

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The day after the state of alarm came into force, the figures of the pandemic have certified this Monday the need to face it with drastic measures. Perhaps even harsher than those included in the government decree. The number of infections notified to the Ministry of Health during the weekend, 52,188, has set a new record, while incidence has risen to 410 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. All the autonomous communities, except the Canary Islands, the Valencian Community and the Balearic Islands, are already in the level of maximum alert (extreme risk) of the traffic light approved last week.

The outlook is so bleak that several experts point out that the curfew could fall short and they have begun to bet on home confinement, even if it is short-lived. Catalunya has it on the table for the weekends. It would be the version of the ‘lockdown’ less damaging for the economy.

Avoid home confinement

All current measures are aimed precisely at preventing a return to the situation of last spring, but time is running out as the opposition parties engage in the duration of the state of alarm, a simple instrument of legal coverage that does not determine the measures to be taken at all times.

There is no good news from Europe either. Unlike. Spain is no longer the caboose for weeks, the student most lagging behind in the fight against the pandemic. Just a tip to open your mouth: France has registered 50,000 infections in a single day, almost the same as Spain in the three of the weekend. So exaggerated is the expansion of the virus in the neighboring country that Macron already has on the table the proposal to return to a general confinement.

Italy, model of a well-done de-escalation, it has doubled the incidence in three days and adopted a measure that here would provoke demonstrations in the streets: all the hotel business will close at 6 pm.

Spain has been at the head of the negative cumulative incidence ranking since the beginning of August but now occupies the ninth place according to him report sent to the European Commission last Friday by the Computational Biology and Complex Systems research group of the Polytechnic University of Catalunya. Ahead is, among other countries, France (589), Belgium (1,249) and the Netherlands (615), with data from yesterday.

The cold arrives

The only positive derivative that could be found in the news is that, having seen what we have seen, the Spanish will not have done so badly, when others are doing much worse now. But various experts they have warned that the second European wave is only a preview of what will happen to us in winter. It could be because the cold has reached the northernmost altitudes earlier and when it gets here it may push our second wave even higher.

The close relationship with these countries also causes the danger of imported cases to skyrocket. “Spain cannot unilaterally lower this virus. Until it falls throughout Europe, we will not be able to say that we are well,” according to Fernando Simón.


The technical spokesman for the Government in the pandemic has issued a grim warning in his appearance on Mondays: “If the correct application of the measures implemented does not take effect and the infections continue to grow at the same rate, in the middle or third week of November we could find ourselves in a very critical situation in some ucis “.

The current increase in cases predicts the same for critical units that have gone from 17% to 24% in four weeks and with five communities around 40%.

Two or three weeks is the margin to stabilize or lower the curve. Otherwise the confinement could be inevitable if you do not want to relive the images of March or April.

The bridge, at home

The black perspective contrasts with the reluctance that the majority of the autonomous communities maintain about the possibility of implementing a perimeter confinement that has opened the state of alarm. Only Euskadi, Asturias and Aragon have established it for the moment, in addition to Navarra and La Rioja, which had already implemented it. The Balearic Islands, Extremadura and the Valencian Community have advanced that they will not do so and the rest doubt despite the fact that the diaspora is approaching the All Saints Bridge, a holiday in Madrid and five other autonomies.

Although he has not wanted to interfere in a decision that the decree leaves in the hands of the autonomous communities, Fernando Simón has recommended to the Spanish that “stay home” during a bridge that “is one of the most mobile of the year” and that “has parties (Hallowen, the Castanyada or the deceased) that favor the transmission of the virus.”

What it has gotten wet is in the duration of the alarm state. The Government maintains that it is the six months have been recommended by experts and from a part of the right it is claimed already to know who these experts were, as they claimed when Madrid was prevented from advancing in the de-escalation phase.

“The current incidence is very high and it is very likely that it may continue to increase with the winter, while the vaccine, if all goes well, it will take about six months to be able to apply it to large groups. While we will be forced to live with the virus, coexist badly, of course “. That is its main argument and that of the technicians of the ministry, the autonomous communities, the scientists consulted and those of the rest of the EU governments, according to Fernando Simón.



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