There are two weeks until the US presidential election. Democrat Joe Biden’s leadership has been clear in many opinion polls and election predictions. In recent weeks, the gap between opinion polls and the sitting president, Republican Donald Trump, has widened nationwide.
However, elections are decided instead of national support in the linguistic states, all of whose constituents often go to the candidate who receives the most votes. Accuscore has predicted the results for all states based on opinion polls, past election results, and a few other variables.
Before the election, there is a fairly high probability of listing 41 states whose voters will go behind either Biden or Trump. Biden has 19 of these states, with 217 constituents. Behind the trumpet are likely to be 180 constituents from 22 states.
When at least 270 voters are required to be elected president, the election results for the next 10 states will decide the next president of the United States.
Florida, nominated by Trump as his home state, has been one of the toughest areas to fight in the last election. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by just over one percentage point four years ago, while Barack Obama defeated his then-opponent Mitt Romney in 2012 by less than one percent. Two years ago, in electing members of the House of Representatives, Republicans took a victory of just over five percentage points.
Again, opinion polls predict a very steady election, as the measurement results are invariably in the margin of error. In these measurements, Biden has averaged a couple of percentage points ahead of Trump. Looking at similar opinion polls four years ago, Clinton’s leadership was 3-4 percentage points, so Trump won all 29 constituents from Florida four years ago. If the same trend in the accuracy of opinion polls continues, Trump will beat Florida again this time and get 29 voters from there.
Trump 209 – Biden 217
Four years ago, Trump defeated Clinton by less than one percentage point in Wisconsin, although recent opinion polls showed Clinton a clear victory of nearly 7 percentage points. Now, according to polls, Biden would win just over six percentage points of Wisconsin’s 10 voters. In the House of Representatives election two years ago, Democrats took a clear victory over Wisconsin, where they have been clearly ahead in their nationwide success. Similarly, with Republicans nationwide in the headwind, the race has been very tight in Wisconsin.
Accuscore predicts Biden will take Wisconsin voters to Trump by a few percent.
Trump 209 – Biden 227
Trump’s victory of less than one percentage point in Pennsylvania four years ago was the first for Republicans in the presidential election this millennium. Two years ago, in the by-elections, the still life swung back to the Democrats, who received more than 10 percentage points more votes than Republicans in the House of Representatives election.
Four years ago, opinion polls predicted Clinton to win 6-8 percentage points a couple of weeks before the election. In the last measurements, the difference narrowed but remained outside the margin of error. Now Biden’s lead in polls is less than 5 percentage points, but recent measurements have been in the order of a few percentage points within the margin of error. The race for 20 voters will be tight again, but Biden is forecast to win Pennsylvania by a couple of percentage points.
Trump 209 – Biden 247
In the last presidential election, opinion polls showed a few percent victory in North Carolina for Clinton. In the final results, Trump took a win of nearly four percentage points. Now the difference in favor of Biden is 3-4 percentage points when looking at the trend of recent opinion polls.
The state has clearly been a Republican territory in the last election. Only Obama in the 2008 election was won by state voters, but in all other presidential elections since 1992, Republicans have won the election. In the forecast, Trump will win Biden in North Carolina in a tight race by 1 to 2 percentage points and take all 15 voters in the state.
Trump 224 – Biden 247
This state, which went to Republicans in all elections in the 21st century, with the exception of the House of Representatives elections two years ago, will send 11 constituents to the presidential election conference. Four years ago, opinion polls were fairly steady among candidates, with Clinton getting a few measurements just before the election that predicted him a profit margin higher than the margin of error. In the end results, Trump beat Arizona by just under four percentage points.
Now, Biden leads in predictions by an average of just over three percentage points, slightly more than Clinton’s leadership in polls four years ago. Arizona is tricky to predict, but in Accuscore’s prediction, Trump is taking the 11 constituents of the border state scarcely to himself.
Trump 235 – Biden 247
Although Democrats have ruled all presidential and House of Representatives elections in recent decades, this time too it can be counted among the Libyan-speaking states. Four years ago, however, the difference in favor of Clinton against Trump was only 1.5 percentage points, although the polls showed Clinton a much larger profit a couple of weeks before the election. In the House of Representatives election two years ago, the difference with the Republicans was already more than 10 percentage points.
In opinion polls, Biden clearly leads Trump, who, however, has been able to close the gap a little. With strong basic support from Democrats and Biden’s nationwide support, he clearly takes Minnesota’s 10 constituents in the forecast.
Trump 235 – Biden 257
Of the Midwestern rust states in Ohio, success has been a good indicator of the election of a president over the past 60 years. The last-time Ohio-winning candidate has not been elected in the 1960 presidential election, when Richard Nixon won in Ohio, but John F. Kennedy took the presidency. Four years ago, Trump beat Ohio by well over 8 percentage points to Clinton, even though opinion polls, especially just before the election, looked very smooth.
The polls still look very smooth, with Biden being just over his neck. In the House of Representatives election two years ago, Republicans won in Ohio by less than 5 percentage points, while in a similar election six years ago, Democrats received subtly more votes. In the prediction, Trump will beat Ohio’s 18 voters, but this time it’s not enough to win the entire race.
Trump 253 – Biden 257
In Iowa, which embarked on a pre-election tour in recent years, Trump took a clear 10 percentage point win in 2016. That’s when opinion polls also predicted a win for him and six voters from Iowa. In other elections, the race for Iowa’s victory has been very tight. For example George W. Bushin winning the presidency in 2000, he lost the state by 0.3 percentage points to Al Gore. Four years later, when Bush won in Iowa, the difference was a princely 0.6 percentage points.
Even now, according to polls, the race will be tight, as Biden’s lead has shrunk within the margin of error. There are far fewer reliable opinion polls from Iowa, but based on the recent election and nationwide support, Biden rises slightly ahead of Trump in the forecast, taking the state’s six constituents.
Trump 253 – Biden 263
Another six-voter state, whose winner has also won the presidency since 1912 with the exception of two elections (Clinton 2016 and Ford 1976). Trump lost to Clinton in Nevada four years ago by 1.5 percentage points, although opinion polls predicted a much larger difference, up to 7 percentage points in favor of Clinton, especially just before the election.
Now in the measurements, Biden leads, but the difference to Trump has shrunk to the margin of error in recent polls. There have been even large fluctuations in party support in the state from one election to another, as variations of 10 percentage points between parties in the House of Representatives election have been common. In the last election of 2018, Democrats received more than 5 percentage points more votes than Republicans. Based on the forecast, Biden will continue to follow in Clinton’s lead and take Nevada by a few percentage points in the upcoming election.
Trump 253 – Biden 269
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the last election was seen in Michigan, when opinion polls promised Clinton a profit of more than 10 percentage points. However, Trump took the state by even a meager 0.2 percentage point difference. Now the situation in opinion polls is similar. Biden’s lead to Trump has ranged from 6 to 11 percentage points, and the trend now seems to be a difference of just over 7 percentage points.
Michigan has been in the Democrat column in all presidential elections since 1992, with the exception of Trump’s surprise victory. Also in the House of Representatives elections, Democrats have generally garnered the most votes in recent decades. Even now, the forecast looks like 16 voters will go to Biden.
Trump 253 – Biden 285
As the calculation shows, the turnaround of one big state going to Biden will significantly change the outcome of the election. As the Michigan miracle recurred, the electorate would go to Trump equally. If he similarly wins Pennsylvania, as he did four years ago, he will overtake Biden in the number of voters.
In the last two weeks, and especially since the last election debate, the situation may still be alive. Of the traditionally Republican states now counted in Trump’s camp, Georgia, among others, Biden has risen right next to Trump and in some measurements even passed. In Texas, too, Democrats have measured more support than before, but its transition to Democrats is unlikely, even if major changes take place over the past week.
There are two major uncertainties in the forecast: first, the impact of the coronary crisis on both voter numbers and voting behavior. Voters, who usually stayed home four years ago, left, giving their votes to Trump. When they stay home, renewing Trump’s victory is tricky. The corona crisis and its treatment seem to be Trump’s fate, as even in February, before the large-scale outbreak of the crisis, his victory was considered likely.
Another uncertainty factor relates to opinion polls. As mentioned above, four years ago, Trump’s support in these polls was badly measured in the bottom line. How well have measurement companies improved measurement modeling over four years? If opinion polls predict at least half closer to the final result of the election four years ago, Biden will win the election. If the polls are as wrong in the Libyan states as in the previous election, Trump will continue at the White House for the next four years.
However, the election is becoming tougher than expected. While some betting houses report that Biden’s probability of winning is as high as 80 percent, betting odds that are well predictive of world events in general speak quite differently. Betfair’s betting market has already been bet on the winner of the presidential election for more than 150 million euros. According to the odds there, Biden has a 59 percent chance of winning and Trump has a 41 percent chance.
Accuscore will update its forecast during the election to include the latest trends in support developments.